Football · Italy Serie D · 16/09, 15:00

Prediction: ASD Seravezza Calcio vs Aquila 1902 Montevarchi

Team pages: Aquila 1902 Montevarchi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

ASD Seravezza Calcio1.33

Aquila 1902 Montevarchi0.69

1X2

52% 29% 19%

ASD Seravezza Calcio Draw Aquila 1902 Montevarchi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

ASD Seravezza Calcio 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLLDDWLW

Aquila 1902 Montevarchi 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDDDWLLW

Head-to-head

ASD Seravezza Calcio 3–2–1 Aquila 1902 Montevarchi (6 last)

ASD Seravezza Calcio1-1Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
Aquila 1902 Montevarchi3-2ASD Seravezza Calcio
Aquila 1902 Montevarchi0-0ASD Seravezza Calcio
ASD Seravezza Calcio2-1Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
ASD Seravezza Calcio1-0Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
Aquila 1902 Montevarchi0-2ASD Seravezza Calcio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ASD Seravezza Calcio 1509 · Aquila 1902 Montevarchi 1520

	ASD Seravezza Calcio	Draw	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
Our model	51%	31%	18%
Market	53%	28%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours ASD Seravezza Calcio: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ASD Seravezza Calcio	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/43/29%	33/50/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	1.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.25

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:57 +6’	1.70	3.25	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD Seravezza Calcio 3–2–1 Aquila 1902 Montevarchi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Italy Serie D	ASD Seravezza Calcio	1-1 HT 1-0	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
24/09/25 Italy Serie D	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi	3-2	ASD Seravezza Calcio
09/02/25 Italy Serie D	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi	0-0	ASD Seravezza Calcio
13/10/24 Italy Serie D	ASD Seravezza Calcio	2-1 HT 0-1	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
07/01/24 Italy Serie D	ASD Seravezza Calcio	1-0 HT 1-0	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
10/09/23 Italy Serie D	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi	0-2	ASD Seravezza Calcio

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ASD CastrumFavara	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
2	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	1	1	0	0	5	0	3
2	Reggina	1	1	0	0	5	0	3
4	Vibonese	1	1	0	0	4	0	3
5	Igea Virtus	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
6	Nissa FC	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
7	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	2	1	0	1	5	4	3
8	Sambiase	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
9	Milazzo	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
10	Modica	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
11	ASD Ragusa	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
12	Calcio Avola 1949	1	0	0	1	2	4	0
13	Vigor Lamezia	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
14	ASD Licata	1	0	0	1	0	5	0
15	Enna Calcio	2	0	0	2	0	8	0
16	Città di Gela	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1
17	Siracusa	1	1	0	0	4	2	-4
18	Trapani	1	0	0	1	0	4	-5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ASD Seravezza Calcio	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi
Lucchese	5-0 W	1-2 L
Prato	2-1 W	0-1 L
GSD Ghiviborgo VDS	0-1 L	1-0 W
Robur Siena	1-4 L	0-0 D
ASD Terranuova Traiana	2-0 W	1-1 D
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: ASD Seravezza Calcio (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ASD Seravezza Calcio

DWLLLDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Lucchese Italy Serie D	5-0	5-0	2	5	W
06/09	San Donato Tavarnelle Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
17/05	Prato Italy Serie D	2-0	2-1	3	7	W
03/05	San Donato Tavarnelle Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	Foligno Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
19/04	GSD Ghiviborgo VDS Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/04	Robur Siena Italy Serie D	0-2	1-4	5	4	L
02/04	Prato Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
29/03	ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	9	4	W
22/03	Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	4	6	D

Aquila 1902 Montevarchi

WDDDDDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio Italy Serie D	2-1	4-1	7	1	W
06/09	Lucchese Italy Serie D	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
03/05	Prato Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
26/04	GSD Ghiviborgo VDS Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
19/04	Robur Siena Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/04	ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
02/04	Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
28/03	Poggibonsi Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
22/03	Gavorrano Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
15/03	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ASD Seravezza Calcio vs Aquila 1902 Montevarchi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ASD Seravezza Calcio win (52%). Probabilities: ASD Seravezza Calcio 52%, draw 29%, Aquila 1902 Montevarchi 19%.

How many goals are expected in ASD Seravezza Calcio vs Aquila 1902 Montevarchi?

The model expects 2.02 goals (ASD Seravezza Calcio 1.33 · Aquila 1902 Montevarchi 0.69), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in ASD Seravezza Calcio vs Aquila 1902 Montevarchi?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.