Football · Italy Serie D · 01/11, 14:30
Prediction: ASD Sasso Marconi vs SCD Progresso Calcio
Team pages: ASD Sasso Marconi · SCD Progresso Calcio
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
ASD Sasso Marconi1.48
SCD Progresso Calcio1.11
1X2
ASD Sasso Marconi
Draw
SCD Progresso Calcio
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
ASD Sasso Marconi
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
SCD Progresso Calcio
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
ASD Sasso Marconi
1–1–4
SCD Progresso Calcio
(6 last)
- SCD Progresso Calcio4-1ASD Sasso Marconi
- ASD Sasso Marconi2-3SCD Progresso Calcio
- ASD Sasso Marconi1-1SCD Progresso Calcio
- SCD Progresso Calcio1-3ASD Sasso Marconi
- ASD Sasso Marconi1-3SCD Progresso Calcio
- SCD Progresso Calcio1-0ASD Sasso Marconi
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · ASD Sasso Marconi 1451 · SCD Progresso Calcio 1432
| ASD Sasso Marconi | Draw | SCD Progresso Calcio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours SCD Progresso Calcio: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| ASD Sasso Marconi | SCD Progresso Calcio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.9 | 0.8 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 14/29/57% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.8 | 1.6 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.5 | 4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD Sasso Marconi 1–1–4 SCD Progresso Calcio
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Italy Serie D | SCD Progresso Calcio | 4-1 | ASD Sasso Marconi |
| 21/12/25 Italy Serie D | ASD Sasso Marconi | 2-3 HT 0-1 | SCD Progresso Calcio |
| 05/01/25 Italy Serie D | ASD Sasso Marconi | 1-1 HT 0-0 | SCD Progresso Calcio |
| 08/09/24 Italy Serie D | SCD Progresso Calcio | 1-3 HT 0-2 | ASD Sasso Marconi |
| 30/04/22 Italy Serie D | ASD Sasso Marconi | 1-3 HT 0-1 | SCD Progresso Calcio |
| 21/11/21 Italy Serie D | SCD Progresso Calcio | 1-0 | ASD Sasso Marconi |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 20 |
| 2 | Sambiase | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | ASD Licata | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 17 |
| 5 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Milazzo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 16 |
| 7 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 15 |
| 8 | Igea Virtus | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 17 | 15 |
| 9 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| 10 | Città di Gela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 11 | Nissa FC | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 9 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 8 |
| 13 | Vigor Lamezia | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 8 |
| 14 | ASD CastrumFavara | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| 15 | Modica | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 7 |
| 16 | Trapani | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 5 |
| 17 | ASD Ragusa | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna Calcio | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 22 | 2 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | ASD Sasso Marconi | SCD Progresso Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Lucchese | 2-0 W | 0-5 L |
| Scandicci | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
ASD Sasso Marconi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio Italy Serie D |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/10 | Lucchese Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 11/10 | Mezzolara Italy Serie D |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 04/10 | Scandicci Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 27/09 | Gavorrano Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Prato Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/09 | Virtus Flaminia Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | San Donato Tavarnelle Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | SCD Progresso Calcio Italy Serie D |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
SCD Progresso Calcio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Ternana Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 18/10 | ASD Grassina Italy Serie D |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/10 | Robur Siena Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 04/10 | ASD Rondinella Marzocco Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 27/09 | Aquila 1902 Montevarchi Italy Serie D |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 20/09 | ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 16/09 | Lucchese Italy Serie D |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Scandicci Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in ASD Sasso Marconi vs SCD Progresso Calcio?
According to our model, the most likely result is a ASD Sasso Marconi win (45%). Probabilities: ASD Sasso Marconi 45%, draw 28%, SCD Progresso Calcio 27%.
How many goals are expected in ASD Sasso Marconi vs SCD Progresso Calcio?
The model expects 2.59 goals (ASD Sasso Marconi 1.48 · SCD Progresso Calcio 1.11), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in ASD Sasso Marconi vs SCD Progresso Calcio?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.