Football · Italy Serie D · 16/09, 20:00

Prediction: Nocerina vs Ischia

Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.97Total
Nocerina1.31
Ischia0.67
1X2
52% 29% 19%
Nocerina Draw Ischia
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Nocerina 2-5-3 (W-D-L)
LWDDDDDLLW
Ischia 3-1-6 (W-D-L)
WLLDLLLWWL
Head-to-head
Nocerina 3–3 Ischia (6 last)
  • Nocerina0-1Ischia
  • Ischia2-1Nocerina
  • Nocerina1-0Ischia
  • Nocerina1-2Ischia
  • Ischia0-2Nocerina
  • Nocerina1-0Ischia
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nocerina 1492 · Ischia 1467
NocerinaDrawIschia
Our model51%31%18%
Market53%27%20%
Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

NocerinaIschia
Goals for / against (FT)0.5 / 0.60.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)0.2 / 0.20 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)0/100/0%0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)1.2 / 3.42.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3 / 0.22 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nocerina 303 Ischia

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DateHomeScoreAway
03/05/26
Italy Serie D
Nocerina0-1
HT 0-0
Ischia
21/12/25
Italy Serie D
Ischia2-1Nocerina
23/02/25
Italy Serie D
Nocerina1-0Ischia
06/11/24
Italy Serie D Cup
Nocerina1-2
HT 1-0
Ischia
23/10/24
Italy Serie D
Ischia0-2Nocerina
05/05/24
Italy Serie D
Nocerina1-0Ischia

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 ASD CastrumFavara 1100 303
2 ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora 1100 503
2 Reggina 1100 503
4 Vibonese 1100 403
5 Igea Virtus 1100 423
6 Nissa FC 1100 313
7 SSD Athletic Club Palermo 2101 543
8 Sambiase 1100 213
9 Milazzo 2101 343
10 Modica 1010 221
11 ASD Ragusa 2011 351
12 Calcio Avola 1949 1001 240
13 Vigor Lamezia 1001 130
14 ASD Licata 1001 050
15 Enna Calcio 2002 080
16 Città di Gela 1001 12-1
17 Siracusa 1100 42-4
18 Trapani 1001 04-5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentNocerinaIschia
Monastir Kosmoto 0-1 L 1-0 W
Virtus Flaminia 1-1 D 0-1 L
Record vs common 0 W 1 D 1 L 1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nocerina

LWDDDDDLLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
06/09 Ebolitana
Italy Serie D
2-1 W
03/05 Ischia
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-1 34 L
26/04 Monastir Kosmoto
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-1 53 L
19/04 Virtus Flaminia
Italy Serie D
1-1 1-1 62 D
12/04 Atletico Lodigiani
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-0 03 D
02/04 USD Latte Dolce
Italy Serie D
0-0 0-0 34 D
29/03 Sarrabus Ogliastra
Italy Serie D
0-0 D
22/03 Valmontone 1921
Italy Serie D
1-1 D
15/03 Cassino
Italy Serie D
1-0 W
01/03 Real Monterotondo
Italy Serie D
0-1 L

Ischia

WLLDLLLWWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
06/09 FC Francavilla
Italy Serie D
0-1 L
03/05 Nocerina
Italy Serie D
0-0 1-0 44 W
26/04 Montespaccato
Italy Serie D
1-0 W
19/04 US Palmese 1914
Italy Serie D
0-1 L
12/04 Anzio Calcio 1924
Italy Serie D
0-3 L
29/03 Scafatese
Italy Serie D
0-2 L
22/03 ASD Trastevere
Italy Serie D
0-0 1-1 41 D
15/03 Olbia
Italy Serie D
1-3 L
04/03 Virtus Flaminia
Italy Serie D
0-1 L
28/02 Monastir Kosmoto
Italy Serie D
0-0 1-0 41 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nocerina vs Ischia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nocerina win (52%). Probabilities: Nocerina 52%, draw 29%, Ischia 19%.

How many goals are expected in Nocerina vs Ischia?

The model expects 1.97 goals (Nocerina 1.31 · Ischia 0.67), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nocerina vs Ischia?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.