Football · Italy Serie D · 06/09, 15:00

Prediction: ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio vs SCD Progresso Calcio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio1.31

SCD Progresso Calcio1.04

1X2

42% 29% 29%

ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio Draw SCD Progresso Calcio

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWDLWDWW

SCD Progresso Calcio 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWDWDW

Head-to-head

ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 0–1–1 SCD Progresso Calcio (2 last)

ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio1-1SCD Progresso Calcio
SCD Progresso Calcio1-0ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 1469 · SCD Progresso Calcio 1501

	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio	Draw	SCD Progresso Calcio
Our model	41%	30%	28%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio	SCD Progresso Calcio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/50/33%	29/43/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:43 +14’	2.10	3.20	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 0–1–1 SCD Progresso Calcio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/03/25 Italy Serie D	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio	1-1 HT 0-0	SCD Progresso Calcio
10/11/24 Italy Serie D	SCD Progresso Calcio	1-0 HT 1-0	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	Pts
1	Sambiase	0
1	ASD CastrumFavara	0
1	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	0
1	ASD Polisportiva Modica Calcio	0
1	ASD Ragusa	0
1	Calcio Avola 1949	0
1	Enna Calcio	0
1	Igea Virtus	0
1	ASD Licata	0
1	Reggina	0
1	Milazzo	0
1	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	0
1	Nissa FC	0
1	Vibonese	0
1	Vigor Lamezia	0
16	Città di Gela	-1
17	Trapani	-5
18	Siracusa	-7

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

DLLWDLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/05	Gavorrano Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/04	ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D	–	3-2	–	–	W
19/04	Poggibonsi Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/04	ASD Cannara Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
02/04	Scandicci Italy Serie D	2-2	3-4	6	2	L
28/03	Camaiore Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
22/03	Orvietana Italy Serie D	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
15/03	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L
01/03	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
22/02	ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	1	3	D

SCD Progresso Calcio

DLLLLWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/05	ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D	–	4-1	–	–	W
26/04	A.C.D. Sant'Angelo Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	Lentigione Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
12/04	Correggese Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
02/04	Tuttocuoio Italy Serie D	2-0	2-0	9	2	W
28/03	Pro Palazzo Italy Serie D	0-0	1-2	1	2	L
22/03	Piacenza Italy Serie D	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
15/03	Sangiuliano City FC Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
28/02	Pistoiese Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	2	8	L
22/02	Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio vs SCD Progresso Calcio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio win (42%). Probabilities: ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 42%, draw 29%, SCD Progresso Calcio 29%.

How many goals are expected in ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio vs SCD Progresso Calcio?

The model expects 2.35 goals (ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 1.31 · SCD Progresso Calcio 1.04), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio vs SCD Progresso Calcio?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.