Football · Italy Serie D · 01/11, 14:30

Prediction: Virtus Flaminia vs ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

Team pages: Virtus Flaminia · ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Virtus Flaminia1.39

ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio1.53

1X2

33% 28% 39%

Virtus Flaminia Draw ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Virtus Flaminia 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWDLDD

ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWDLW

Head-to-head

Virtus Flaminia 1–1–0 ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio (2 last)

Virtus Flaminia0-0ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio0-3Virtus Flaminia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Virtus Flaminia 1503 · ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 1514

	Virtus Flaminia	Draw	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
Our model	33%	27%	40%
Market	33%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Virtus Flaminia	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/80/0%	43/43/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.6	3.4 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.20

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:42 +5’	2.75	3.20	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Virtus Flaminia 1–1–0 ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/01/23 Italy Serie D	Virtus Flaminia	0-0	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
28/09/22 Italy Serie D	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio	0-3	Virtus Flaminia

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	9	6	2	1	20	5	20
2	Sambiase	9	6	2	1	13	6	20
3	Vibonese	9	5	3	1	20	8	18
4	ASD Licata	9	5	2	2	12	14	17
5	Calcio Avola 1949	9	5	1	3	12	12	16
6	Milazzo	9	5	1	3	10	10	16
7	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	9	4	3	2	15	8	15
8	Igea Virtus	9	4	3	2	21	17	15
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	8	3	2	3	11	10	11
10	Città di Gela	9	2	4	3	10	8	9
11	Nissa FC	9	2	3	4	11	13	9
12	Siracusa	9	4	3	2	13	8	8
13	Vigor Lamezia	9	2	2	5	10	17	8
14	ASD CastrumFavara	9	2	2	5	10	12	8
15	Modica	8	2	1	5	7	11	7
16	Trapani	9	3	1	5	5	12	5
17	ASD Ragusa	9	0	3	6	7	16	3
18	Enna Calcio	9	0	2	7	2	22	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Virtus Flaminia	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
Gavorrano	1-1 D	2-1 W
San Donato Tavarnelle	2-1 W	0-1 L
ASD Sasso Marconi	2-2 D	2-1 W
ASD Grassina	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Virtus Flaminia

WWWDLWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Prato Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
18/10	Mezzolara Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/10	ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
04/10	Gavorrano Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	San Donato Tavarnelle Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/09	ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D	–	1-5	–	–	L
16/09	ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
13/09	ASD Grassina Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
06/09	Ghiviborgo Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	Montespaccato Italy Serie D	2-2	4-2	3	2	W

ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

WWLWLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
18/10	San Donato Tavarnelle Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
11/10	ASD Grassina Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	8	6	D
04/10	GSD Ghiviborgo VDS Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
27/09	ASD Rondinella Marzocco Italy Serie D	1-1	3-2	6	5	W
20/09	Ternana Italy Serie D	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
16/09	Robur Siena Italy Serie D	–	3-2	–	–	W
12/09	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi Italy Serie D	1-2	1-4	6	1	L
06/09	SCD Progresso Calcio Italy Serie D	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
03/05	Gavorrano Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Virtus Flaminia vs ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio win (39%). Probabilities: Virtus Flaminia 33%, draw 28%, ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 39%.

How many goals are expected in Virtus Flaminia vs ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Virtus Flaminia 1.39 · ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 1.53), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Virtus Flaminia vs ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.