Football · Finland Kolmonen · 01/09, 17:45

Prediction: KPV Akatemia vs Sporting Kristina

Team pages: KPV Akatemia · Sporting Kristina

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.78Total

KPV Akatemia1.64

Sporting Kristina2.15

1X2

29% 21% 49%

KPV Akatemia Draw Sporting Kristina

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

KPV Akatemia 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLLLWL

Sporting Kristina 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLDLWD

Head-to-head

KPV Akatemia 2–1–3 Sporting Kristina (6 last)

Sporting Kristina3-1KPV Akatemia
KPV Akatemia2-0Sporting Kristina
Sporting Kristina3-2KPV Akatemia
KPV Akatemia4-4Sporting Kristina
Sporting Kristina1-0KPV Akatemia
KPV Akatemia3-1Sporting Kristina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KPV Akatemia 1445 · Sporting Kristina 1495

	KPV Akatemia	Draw	Sporting Kristina
Our model	29%	22%	49%
Market	30%	21%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Kristina (rating 1445 vs 1495).
H2H favours Sporting Kristina: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KPV Akatemia	Sporting Kristina
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.7	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	29/43/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.7	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.00

X4.33

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
11:02 +8’	3.00	4.33	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KPV Akatemia 2–1–3 Sporting Kristina

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	Sporting Kristina	3-1 HT 1-0	KPV Akatemia
24/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	KPV Akatemia	2-0 HT 0-0	Sporting Kristina
04/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	Sporting Kristina	3-2	KPV Akatemia
01/09/24 Finland Kolmonen	KPV Akatemia	4-4	Sporting Kristina
07/06/24 Finland Kolmonen	Sporting Kristina	1-0 HT 0-0	KPV Akatemia
21/08/23 Finland Kolmonen	KPV Akatemia	3-1 HT 1-0	Sporting Kristina

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	16	12	2	2	45	13	38
2	FC Kiisto	17	9	4	4	41	23	31
3	FC Ylivieska	16	8	2	6	39	37	26
4	Virkia	16	7	3	6	32	28	24
5	SIF	16	7	3	6	31	32	24
6	VPV Pallo-Veikot	15	7	2	6	21	21	23
7	SJK-j	16	6	4	6	25	25	22
8	Sporting Kristina	15	5	4	6	23	24	19
9	LBK	17	6	1	10	26	41	19
10	Nykarleby IK	16	3	4	9	22	40	13
11	KPV Akatemia	16	3	1	12	30	51	10

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KPV Akatemia	Sporting Kristina
VIFK	0-4 L	1-0 W
FC Kiisto	3-0 W	1-2 L
LBK	1-3 L	3-2 W
VPV Pallo-Veikot	0-1 L	1-2 L
Virkia	2-4 L	4-4 D
SJK-j	3-6 L	0-0 D
SIF	2-3 L	1-2 L
FC Ylivieska	5-3 W	0-2 L
Nykarleby IK	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 7 L	2 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Kristina (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KPV Akatemia

LWLLWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-4	1	1	L
17/08	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	2	0	W
08/08	LBK Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-3	8	3	L
04/08	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
29/07	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-4	4	6	L
23/07	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
16/07	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	1-3	3-6	2	2	L
01/07	SIF Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-3	1	1	L
23/06	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	2-1	5-3	1	7	W
18/06	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	6	2	L

Sporting Kristina

WLWDLLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	–	4-4	–	–	D
23/08	LBK Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
09/08	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
30/07	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
16/07	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
10/07	SIF Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-2	5	2	L
02/07	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
15/06	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
10/06	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
06/06	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KPV Akatemia vs Sporting Kristina?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sporting Kristina win (49%). Probabilities: KPV Akatemia 29%, draw 21%, Sporting Kristina 49%.

How many goals are expected in KPV Akatemia vs Sporting Kristina?

The model expects 3.78 goals (KPV Akatemia 1.64 · Sporting Kristina 2.15), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KPV Akatemia vs Sporting Kristina?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.