Football · Finland Kolmonen · 11/09, 17:00

Prediction: ToTe vs MPS/Atletico Malmi

Team pages: ToTe · MPS/Atletico Malmi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

ToTe1.81

MPS/Atletico Malmi1.52

1X2

44% 23% 32%

ToTe Draw MPS/Atletico Malmi

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

ToTe 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDLDWD

MPS/Atletico Malmi 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDWLLW

Head-to-head

ToTe 1–1–1 MPS/Atletico Malmi (3 last)

MPS/Atletico Malmi0-3ToTe
MPS/Atletico Malmi0-0ToTe
MPS/Atletico Malmi9-0ToTe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ToTe 1550 · MPS/Atletico Malmi 1508

	ToTe	Draw	MPS/Atletico Malmi
Our model	44%	25%	32%
Market	45%	22%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ToTe (rating 1550 vs 1508).
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ToTe	MPS/Atletico Malmi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.6	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	78/11/11%	33/22/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	5.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.00

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:21 +1’	2.00	4.00	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ToTe 1–1–1 MPS/Atletico Malmi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	0-3 HT 0-0	ToTe
08/03/26 Finland Cup	MPS/Atletico Malmi	0-0 HT 0-0	ToTe
26/08/23 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	9-0 HT 5-0	ToTe

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MPS/Atletico Malmi	18	11	2	5	37	31	35
2	ToTe	17	10	4	3	40	21	34
3	Tips Vantaa	18	10	1	7	43	40	31
4	PPJ/Lauttasaari	18	8	5	5	51	27	29
5	LPS Helsinki	16	9	2	5	45	32	29
6	VJS Vantaa II	18	8	3	7	58	32	27
7	Atlantis FC/PM	18	8	3	7	49	60	27
8	Valtti	17	8	2	7	31	33	26
9	Töölön Taisto	18	4	8	6	37	42	20
10	HPS II	18	4	5	9	41	47	17
11	FC Kontu	18	3	6	9	30	46	15
12	PPS	18	2	1	15	17	68	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ToTe	MPS/Atletico Malmi
VJS Vantaa II	3-3 D	2-1 W
FC Kontu	2-1 W	1-1 D
Atlantis FC/PM	2-2 D	6-1 W
Tips Vantaa	0-2 L	1-3 L
PPJ/Lauttasaari	1-1 D	2-0 W
PPS	3-1 W	2-1 W
Valtti	2-0 W	1-2 L
Töölön Taisto	4-1 W	2-2 D
HPS II	3-2 W	2-1 W
LPS Helsinki	1-3 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: ToTe (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ToTe

LWWWWDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	3-1	3-3	4	5	D
28/08	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/08	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-2	6	6	D
14/08	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	4	1	L
08/08	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
01/08	PPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	8	5	W
24/07	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
03/07	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	2-1	4-1	0	5	W
25/06	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	3-1	3-2	5	5	W
13/06	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	6	3	L

MPS/Atletico Malmi

WWLWDDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
29/08	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	4	7	L
22/08	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-5	3	6	L
13/08	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
07/08	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
01/08	Toolon Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-2	10	3	D
24/07	PPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
26/06	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-2	7	11	L
16/06	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
12/06	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	–	6-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ToTe vs MPS/Atletico Malmi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ToTe win (44%). Probabilities: ToTe 44%, draw 23%, MPS/Atletico Malmi 32%.

How many goals are expected in ToTe vs MPS/Atletico Malmi?

The model expects 3.33 goals (ToTe 1.81 · MPS/Atletico Malmi 1.52), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ToTe vs MPS/Atletico Malmi?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.