Football · Finland Kolmonen · 11/09, 17:30

Prediction: JyTy vs LTU

Team pages: JyTy · LTU

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

JyTy1.54

LTU1.73

1X2

34% 24% 42%

JyTy Draw LTU

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

JyTy 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWDLWD

LTU 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWWWDW

Head-to-head

JyTy 1–0 LTU (1 last)

LTU2-3JyTy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JyTy 1492 · LTU 1568

	JyTy	Draw	LTU
Our model	33%	25%	42%
Market	35%	23%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LTU (rating 1492 vs 1568).
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JyTy	LTU
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	1.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/38/50%	38/38/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 4.3	2.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.60

X4.00

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:21 +2’	2.60	4.00	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JyTy 1–0–0 LTU

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	LTU	2-3 HT 1-0	JyTy

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EuPa	18	12	4	2	36	11	40
2	IFK Mariehamn II	18	12	3	3	43	18	39
3	PIF Parainen	17	9	4	4	30	17	31
4	Peimari United	18	7	8	3	31	20	29
5	SAPA/2	18	8	3	7	26	23	27
6	LTU	18	8	3	7	24	22	27
7	MaPS	18	8	2	8	28	28	26
8	VG-62	17	7	0	10	22	25	21
9	KaaPo	18	7	0	11	30	39	21
10	JyTy	18	4	4	10	20	42	16
11	PiPS	18	4	2	12	17	39	14
12	ACF	18	2	5	11	15	38	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JyTy	LTU
IFK Mariehamn II	1-1 D	0-1 L
VG-62	2-1 W	2-1 W
Peimari United	0-2 L	1-0 W
EuPa	1-1 D	0-0 D
KaaPo	2-1 W	3-0 W
PIF Parainen	1-3 L	1-1 D
MaPS	1-1 D	2-1 W
ACF	0-2 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: LTU (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JyTy

LWLDLWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/08	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
22/08	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
15/08	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
06/08	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	2	7	W
01/08	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	3	5	L
23/07	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
18/07	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-5	6	1	L
01/07	SAPA/2 Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	0	5	W
25/06	ACF Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	3	4	L

LTU

WWLDWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	–	3-0	–	–	W
29/08	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
21/08	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	8	3	W
11/08	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
07/08	ACF Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-1	7	6	W
31/07	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
25/07	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
04/07	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	0	2	L
26/06	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
13/06	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JyTy vs LTU?

According to our model, the most likely result is an LTU win (42%). Probabilities: JyTy 34%, draw 24%, LTU 42%.

How many goals are expected in JyTy vs LTU?

The model expects 3.27 goals (JyTy 1.54 · LTU 1.73), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in JyTy vs LTU?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.