Football · Finland Kolmonen · 11/09, 17:30

Prediction: Komeetat vs FCJ Blackbird

Team pages: Komeetat · FCJ Blackbird

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.97Total

Komeetat1.44

FCJ Blackbird2.53

1X2

21% 18% 61%

Komeetat Draw FCJ Blackbird

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Komeetat 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WWDLDLLLDL

FCJ Blackbird 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWDWLLDW

Head-to-head

Komeetat 0–6 FCJ Blackbird (6 last)

FCJ Blackbird2-0Komeetat
Komeetat3-4FCJ Blackbird
Komeetat0-5FCJ Blackbird
FCJ Blackbird5-0Komeetat
Komeetat0-5FCJ Blackbird
FCJ Blackbird4-1Komeetat

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Komeetat 1447 · FCJ Blackbird 1497

	Komeetat	Draw	FCJ Blackbird
Our model	20%	20%	60%
Market	21%	17%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.97 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FCJ Blackbird (rating 1447 vs 1497).
H2H favours FCJ Blackbird: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Komeetat	FCJ Blackbird
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.1	2.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4	3.6 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.20

X5.25

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.93

2 (-1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 41.90

Under 41.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.87 ★
2	1.45 → 1.45	Pinn 1.49

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:36 +8’	4.20	5.25	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:40 +3’	3.54	5.87	1.49

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Komeetat 0–0–6 FCJ Blackbird

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	FCJ Blackbird	2-0 HT 1-0	Komeetat
22/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	Komeetat	3-4	FCJ Blackbird
08/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	Komeetat	0-5 HT 0-2	FCJ Blackbird
06/06/25 Finland Kolmonen	FCJ Blackbird	5-0 HT 2-0	Komeetat
16/04/25 Finland Kolmonen	Komeetat	0-5 HT 0-2	FCJ Blackbird
23/08/24 Finland Kolmonen	FCJ Blackbird	4-1 HT 1-0	Komeetat

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JPS	17	12	5	0	60	13	41
2	FC Metso	17	9	3	5	47	37	30
3	KeuPa	17	8	6	3	39	33	30
4	FCJ Blackbird	17	8	5	4	46	31	29
5	FC Vaajakoski II	19	5	2	12	32	65	17
6	JJK/2	15	5	1	9	25	47	16
7	Savon Pallo	17	4	3	10	33	41	15
8	Komeetat	17	3	3	11	22	37	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Komeetat	FCJ Blackbird
JPS	3-6 L	1-1 D
Savon Pallo	1-1 D	4-2 W
FC Vaajakoski II	0-2 L	2-2 D
FC Metso	2-4 L	1-4 L
KeuPa	0-1 L	2-3 L
JJK/2	1-1 D	6-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FCJ Blackbird (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Komeetat

WWDLDLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	JPS Finland Kolmonen	–	3-6	–	–	L
29/08	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
21/08	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
14/08	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	0-4	2-4	0	5	L
07/08	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
31/07	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
22/07	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
17/07	JPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
26/06	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	3	4	W
17/06	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	3-0	5-1	11	1	W

FCJ Blackbird

DLLWDWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
28/08	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
19/08	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	0-4	1-4	4	6	L
14/08	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-3	5	2	L
07/08	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	6-0	12	1	W
29/07	JPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
22/07	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
17/07	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
25/06	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L
16/06	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Komeetat vs FCJ Blackbird?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FCJ Blackbird win (61%). Probabilities: Komeetat 21%, draw 18%, FCJ Blackbird 61%.

How many goals are expected in Komeetat vs FCJ Blackbird?

The model expects 3.97 goals (Komeetat 1.44 · FCJ Blackbird 2.53), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Komeetat vs FCJ Blackbird?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.