Football · Finland Kolmonen · 10/09, 19:15

Prediction: HPS II vs Valtti

Team pages: HPS II · Valtti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.98Total

HPS II2.24

Valtti1.74

1X2

49% 20% 30%

HPS II Draw Valtti

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

HPS II 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

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Valtti 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

HPS II 0–1 Valtti (1 last)

Valtti3-1HPS II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HPS II 1425 · Valtti 1504

	HPS II	Draw	Valtti
Our model	49%	22%	30%
Market	50%	19%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.98 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valtti (rating 1425 vs 1504).
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HPS II	Valtti
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.6	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.6	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/11/67%	44/22/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.75

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +2’	1.80	4.75	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HPS II 0–0–1 Valtti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	Valtti	3-1 HT 0-1	HPS II

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MPS/Atletico Malmi	18	11	2	5	37	31	35
2	ToTe	17	10	4	3	40	21	34
3	Tips Vantaa	18	10	1	7	43	40	31
4	PPJ/Lauttasaari	18	8	5	5	51	27	29
5	LPS Helsinki	16	9	2	5	45	32	29
6	VJS Vantaa II	18	8	3	7	58	32	27
7	Atlantis FC/PM	18	8	3	7	49	60	27
8	Valtti	17	8	2	7	31	33	26
9	Töölön Taisto	18	4	8	6	37	42	20
10	HPS II	18	4	5	9	41	47	17
11	FC Kontu	18	3	6	9	30	46	15
12	PPS	18	2	1	15	17	68	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HPS II	Valtti
Tips Vantaa	1-2 L	2-3 L
LPS Helsinki	2-2 D	1-3 L
VJS Vantaa II	1-3 L	4-3 W
PPS	2-2 D	3-0 W
Atlantis FC/PM	3-4 L	1-3 L
FC Kontu	2-3 L	2-2 D
PPJ/Lauttasaari	3-3 D	1-0 W
ToTe	2-3 L	0-2 L
MPS/Atletico Malmi	1-2 L	2-1 W
Töölön Taisto	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 6 L	4 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Valtti (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HPS II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
27/08	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	7	2	D
22/08	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
13/08	PPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-2	10	2	D
06/08	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	1-3	3-4	8	2	L
31/07	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-3	6	2	L
26/07	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	3-2	3-3	7	3	D
25/06	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	1-3	2-3	5	5	L
16/06	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	3	6	L
11/06	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-2	4	5	D

Valtti

WWWLLDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-3	5	5	L
28/08	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
21/08	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	7	4	D
14/08	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
06/08	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
29/07	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-3	6	6	L
24/07	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
05/07	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	1-2	4-3	5	4	W
26/06	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-1	2	11	W
12/06	PPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	8	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HPS II vs Valtti?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HPS II win (49%). Probabilities: HPS II 49%, draw 20%, Valtti 30%.

How many goals are expected in HPS II vs Valtti?

The model expects 3.98 goals (HPS II 2.24 · Valtti 1.74), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in HPS II vs Valtti?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.