Football · Spain Tercera Group 4 · 08/11, 11:15

Prediction: Santurtzi vs CD Alaves C

Team pages: Santurtzi · CD Alaves C

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Santurtzi1.35

CD Alaves C1.37

1X2

36% 28% 37%

Santurtzi Draw CD Alaves C

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Santurtzi 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWLWL

CD Alaves C 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWWDDW

Head-to-head

Santurtzi 1–2–1 CD Alaves C (4 last)

Santurtzi2-2CD Alaves C
CD Alaves C1-1Santurtzi
Santurtzi2-0CD Alaves C
CD Alaves C3-1Santurtzi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santurtzi 1455 · CD Alaves C 1517

	Santurtzi	Draw	CD Alaves C
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	36%	27%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Alaves C (rating 1455 vs 1517).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santurtzi	CD Alaves C
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	2.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/29/43%	29/14/57%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.30

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.50▼	Pinn 3.06 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.25 → 2.45▲	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:31 +3’	2.70	3.30	2.25
01:28 +7’	2.50▼	3.30	2.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:41 +50’	3.06	3.04	2.26

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santurtzi 1–2–1 CD Alaves C

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 4	Santurtzi	2-2 HT 0-1	CD Alaves C
05/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 4	CD Alaves C	1-1 HT 0-0	Santurtzi
03/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 4	Santurtzi	2-0 HT 2-0	CD Alaves C
21/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 4	CD Alaves C	3-1 HT 0-0	Santurtzi

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Leioa	9	5	4	0	24	10	19
2	Aurrera de Vitoria	9	6	1	2	14	14	19
3	CD Derio	9	5	3	1	13	8	18
4	UD Aretxabaleta	9	5	2	2	12	8	17
5	CD Touring	9	4	3	2	10	6	15
6	Real Sociedad C	9	4	3	2	16	12	15
7	CD Alaves C	9	4	3	2	20	10	15
8	San Ignacio	9	4	2	3	16	11	14
9	Cultural de Durango	9	3	5	1	14	11	14
10	Eibar C	9	4	2	3	16	12	14
11	SD Beasain	9	3	2	4	13	13	11
12	Sodupe	9	3	2	4	6	15	11
13	Pasaia KE	9	3	1	5	12	19	10
14	Santurtzi	9	3	0	6	7	12	9
15	Lagun Onak	9	2	2	5	8	13	8
16	Real Union B	9	1	4	4	9	16	7
17	SD Erandio	9	2	0	7	8	13	6
18	Amurrio	9	0	1	8	3	18	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santurtzi	CD Alaves C
Aurrera de Vitoria	1-2 L	1-2 L
Amurrio	2-1 W	3-0 W
Eibar C	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Alaves C (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santurtzi

LLWLLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Aurrera de Vitoria Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-2	–	–	L
25/10	Amurrio Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	2-1	8	5	W
18/10	Eibar C Spain Tercera Group 4	1-0	1-2	6	5	L
10/10	Real Union B Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
03/10	Pasaia KE Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	Lagun Onak Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
20/09	CD Derio Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
13/09	Cultural de Durango Spain Tercera Group 4	2-0	2-1	1	4	W
05/09	SD Beasain Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-2	–	–	L
09/05	Cultural de Durango Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	1-4	6	1	L

CD Alaves C

LDWLLWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	San Ignacio Spain Tercera Group 4	2-0	3-0	1	6	W
25/10	Real Sociedad C Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	2-2	7	8	D
17/10	Leioa Spain Tercera Group 4	0-2	2-2	3	6	D
10/10	SD Erandio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-0	–	–	W
04/10	Sodupe Spain Tercera Group 4	1-0	5-1	3	5	W
26/09	CD Touring Spain Tercera Group 4	0-2	1-2	8	3	L
19/09	Aurrera de Vitoria Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	1-2	10	2	L
12/09	Amurrio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	3-0	–	–	W
05/09	Eibar C Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-1	–	–	D
09/05	Portugalete Spain Tercera Group 4	0-2	1-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santurtzi vs CD Alaves C?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Alaves C win (37%). Probabilities: Santurtzi 36%, draw 28%, CD Alaves C 37%.

How many goals are expected in Santurtzi vs CD Alaves C?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Santurtzi 1.35 · CD Alaves C 1.37), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Santurtzi vs CD Alaves C?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.