Football · Spain Tercera Group 4 · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Eibar C vs CD Derio

Team pages: Eibar C · CD Derio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Eibar C1.49

CD Derio1.38

1X2

38% 28% 33%

Eibar C Draw CD Derio

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Eibar C 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLWWWL

CD Derio 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWDLWWL

Head-to-head

Eibar C 1–3–0 CD Derio (4 last)

CD Derio2-2Eibar C
Eibar C1-1CD Derio
Eibar C0-0CD Derio
CD Derio0-2Eibar C

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Eibar C 1507 · CD Derio 1529

	Eibar C	Draw	CD Derio
Our model	39%	27%	34%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Eibar C	CD Derio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/67/33%	43/29/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	5.6 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.35▼	Pinn 2.39
X	3.25 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.16
2	2.60 → 2.70▲	Pinn 2.76 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:08 +4’	2.38	3.25	2.60
10:06	2.40▲	3.10▼	2.63▲
04:37 +32’	2.35▼	3.10	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:01 +12’	2.39	3.16	2.76

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Eibar C 1–3–0 CD Derio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 4	CD Derio	2-2 HT 2-0	Eibar C
22/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 4	Eibar C	1-1 HT 0-1	CD Derio
23/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 4	Eibar C	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Derio
12/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 4	CD Derio	0-2	Eibar C

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Leioa	10	6	4	0	28	12	22
2	Aurrera de Vitoria	10	7	1	2	17	14	22
3	Real Sociedad C	10	5	3	2	20	13	18
4	CD Alaves C	10	5	3	2	21	10	18
5	CD Derio	10	5	3	2	15	11	18
6	Cultural de Durango	10	4	5	1	16	11	17
7	UD Aretxabaleta	10	5	2	3	12	11	17
8	CD Touring	10	4	3	3	12	10	15
9	Eibar C	10	4	2	4	16	14	14
10	Sodupe	10	4	2	4	7	15	14
11	San Ignacio	10	4	2	4	16	12	14
12	SD Beasain	10	4	2	4	19	13	14
13	Lagun Onak	10	3	2	5	11	14	11
14	Real Union B	10	2	4	4	12	18	10
15	Pasaia KE	10	3	1	6	13	22	10
16	Santurtzi	10	3	0	7	7	13	9
17	SD Erandio	10	2	0	8	9	17	6
18	Amurrio	10	0	1	9	3	24	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Eibar C	CD Derio
Cultural de Durango	0-2 L	1-1 D
SD Beasain	3-1 W	2-0 W
UD Aretxabaleta	2-0 W	2-1 W
Santurtzi	2-1 W	2-0 W
San Ignacio	1-2 L	1-1 D
Real Sociedad C	2-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CD Derio (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Eibar C

DDWLLLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Cultural de Durango Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-2	–	–	L
01/11	SD Beasain Spain Tercera Group 4	–	3-1	–	–	W
25/10	UD Aretxabaleta Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-0	–	–	W
18/10	Santurtzi Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
10/10	San Ignacio Spain Tercera Group 4	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
04/10	Real Sociedad C Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-3	–	–	L
26/09	Leioa Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-2	–	–	L
19/09	SD Erandio Spain Tercera Group 4	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
13/09	Sodupe Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	CD Alaves C Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-1	–	–	D

CD Derio

DDWWWDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Real Union B Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-3	–	–	L
31/10	Pasaia KE Spain Tercera Group 4	1-1	3-2	2	8	W
24/10	Lagun Onak Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-1	–	–	W
17/10	CD Touring Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-2	–	–	L
10/10	Cultural de Durango Spain Tercera Group 4	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
04/10	SD Beasain Spain Tercera Group 4	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
26/09	UD Aretxabaleta Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	2-1	11	3	W
20/09	Santurtzi Spain Tercera Group 4	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
12/09	San Ignacio Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
05/09	Real Sociedad C Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-0	8	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Eibar C vs CD Derio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Eibar C win (38%). Probabilities: Eibar C 38%, draw 28%, CD Derio 33%.

How many goals are expected in Eibar C vs CD Derio?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Eibar C 1.49 · CD Derio 1.38), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Eibar C vs CD Derio?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.