Football · Spain Tercera Group 4 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: Aurrera de Vitoria vs SD Beasain

Team pages: Aurrera de Vitoria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Aurrera de Vitoria1.46

SD Beasain1.46

1X2

36% 28% 36%

Aurrera de Vitoria Draw SD Beasain

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Aurrera de Vitoria 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLWLWW

SD Beasain 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLLWWDLW

Head-to-head

Aurrera de Vitoria 0–2 SD Beasain (2 last)

Aurrera de Vitoria0-2SD Beasain
SD Beasain4-2Aurrera de Vitoria

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aurrera de Vitoria 1559 · SD Beasain 1505

	Aurrera de Vitoria	Draw	SD Beasain
Our model	37%	27%	37%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aurrera de Vitoria (rating 1559 vs 1505).
H2H favours SD Beasain: 2-0-0.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aurrera de Vitoria	SD Beasain
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	100/0/0%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.5	4.3 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	6.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:47 +31’	2.50	3.20	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aurrera de Vitoria 0–0–2 SD Beasain

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/04/18 Spain Tercera Group 4	Aurrera de Vitoria	0-2 HT 0-1	SD Beasain
11/11/17 Spain Tercera Group 4	SD Beasain	4-2	Aurrera de Vitoria

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Leioa	10	6	4	0	28	12	22
2	Aurrera de Vitoria	10	7	1	2	17	14	22
3	Real Sociedad C	10	5	3	2	20	13	18
4	CD Alaves C	10	5	3	2	21	10	18
5	CD Derio	10	5	3	2	15	11	18
6	Cultural de Durango	10	4	5	1	16	11	17
7	UD Aretxabaleta	10	5	2	3	12	11	17
8	CD Touring	10	4	3	3	12	10	15
9	Eibar C	10	4	2	4	16	14	14
10	Sodupe	10	4	2	4	7	15	14
11	San Ignacio	10	4	2	4	16	12	14
12	SD Beasain	10	4	2	4	19	13	14
13	Lagun Onak	10	3	2	5	11	14	11
14	Real Union B	10	2	4	4	12	18	10
15	Pasaia KE	10	3	1	6	13	22	10
16	Santurtzi	10	3	0	7	7	13	9
17	SD Erandio	10	2	0	8	9	17	6
18	Amurrio	10	0	1	9	3	24	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aurrera de Vitoria	SD Beasain
UD Aretxabaleta	3-0 W	0-0 D
Santurtzi	2-1 W	2-0 W
CD Touring	1-1 D	0-2 L
Amurrio	2-1 W	6-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aurrera de Vitoria

WDWWWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	UD Aretxabaleta Spain Tercera Group 4	–	3-0	–	–	W
31/10	Santurtzi Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-1	–	–	W
24/10	San Ignacio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-5	–	–	L
17/10	Real Sociedad C Spain Tercera Group 4	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
10/10	Leioa Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-4	–	–	L
03/10	SD Erandio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/09	Sodupe Spain Tercera Group 4	–	3-0	–	–	W
19/09	CD Alaves C Spain Tercera Group 4	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
12/09	CD Touring Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Amurrio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-1	–	–	W

SD Beasain

WDLLLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Amurrio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	6-0	–	–	W
01/11	Eibar C Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-3	–	–	L
24/10	Real Union B Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-1	–	–	D
17/10	Pasaia KE Spain Tercera Group 4	2-1	4-1	5	5	W
10/10	Lagun Onak Spain Tercera Group 4	–	4-2	–	–	W
04/10	CD Derio Spain Tercera Group 4	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
26/09	Cultural de Durango Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-2	–	–	L
19/09	CD Touring Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-2	11	8	L
13/09	UD Aretxabaleta Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
05/09	Santurtzi Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aurrera de Vitoria vs SD Beasain?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aurrera de Vitoria win (36%). Probabilities: Aurrera de Vitoria 36%, draw 28%, SD Beasain 36%.

How many goals are expected in Aurrera de Vitoria vs SD Beasain?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Aurrera de Vitoria 1.46 · SD Beasain 1.46), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aurrera de Vitoria vs SD Beasain?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.