Football · Italy Serie D · 01/11, 14:30

Prediction: Ligorna vs Sestri Levante

Team pages: Ligorna · Sestri Levante

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Ligorna1.65

Sestri Levante0.93

1X2

53% 26% 20%

Ligorna Draw Sestri Levante

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ligorna 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLWWWWLW

Sestri Levante 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLWDLD

Head-to-head

Ligorna 3–2–1 Sestri Levante (6 last)

Sestri Levante1-1Ligorna
Sestri Levante0-1Ligorna
Ligorna1-1Sestri Levante
Sestri Levante1-2Ligorna
Sestri Levante1-0Ligorna
Ligorna2-1Sestri Levante

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ligorna 1551 · Sestri Levante 1468

	Ligorna	Draw	Sestri Levante
Our model	53%	27%	20%
Market	54%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ligorna (rating 1551 vs 1468).
H2H favours Ligorna: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ligorna	Sestri Levante
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.5	0.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/44/33%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.3	1.3 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.50

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.67▲	Bet365 1.67
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	5.00 → 4.33▼	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:42 +24’	1.57	3.60	5.00
18:37 +11’	1.67▲	3.50▼	4.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ligorna 3–2–1 Sestri Levante

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Italy Serie D Cup	Sestri Levante	1-1 HT 0-0	Ligorna
01/02/26 Italy Serie D	Sestri Levante	0-1 HT 0-1	Ligorna
28/09/25 Italy Serie D	Ligorna	1-1 HT 0-0	Sestri Levante
08/08/25 Europe Friendlies	Sestri Levante	1-2 HT 0-1	Ligorna
13/11/22 Italy Serie D	Sestri Levante	1-0 HT 1-0	Ligorna
02/11/22 Italy Serie D Cup	Ligorna	2-1 HT 0-0	Sestri Levante

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	9	6	2	1	20	5	20
2	Sambiase	9	6	2	1	13	6	20
3	Vibonese	9	5	3	1	20	8	18
4	ASD Licata	9	5	2	2	12	14	17
5	Calcio Avola 1949	9	5	1	3	12	12	16
6	Milazzo	9	5	1	3	10	10	16
7	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	9	4	3	2	15	8	15
8	Igea Virtus	9	4	3	2	21	17	15
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	8	3	2	3	11	10	11
10	Città di Gela	9	2	4	3	10	8	9
11	Nissa FC	9	2	3	4	11	13	9
12	Siracusa	9	4	3	2	13	8	8
13	Vigor Lamezia	9	2	2	5	10	17	8
14	ASD CastrumFavara	9	2	2	5	10	12	8
15	Modica	8	2	1	5	7	11	7
16	Trapani	9	3	1	5	5	12	5
17	ASD Ragusa	9	0	3	6	7	16	3
18	Enna Calcio	9	0	2	7	2	22	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ligorna	Sestri Levante
ACSD Saluzzo	2-1 W	0-0 D
Celle Varazze FBC	2-0 W	1-1 D
Biellesse	1-3 L	1-2 L
Sanremese	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ligorna (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ligorna

WDLLWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Valenzana Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/10	AC Bra Italy Serie D	0-2	1-2	9	12	L
11/10	ASDC Gozzano Italy Serie D	2-0	4-0	0	3	W
04/10	ACSD Saluzzo Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
27/09	Chisola Italy Serie D	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
20/09	Celle Varazze FBC Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
16/09	Derthona Italy Serie D	1-2	2-3	8	4	L
13/09	Biellesse Italy Serie D	1-1	1-3	5	8	L
06/09	Sanremese Italy Serie D	0-0	2-2	4	5	D
17/05	Citta di Varese Italy Serie D	3-0	5-3	6	6	W

Sestri Levante

LWLLDLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	ACSD Saluzzo Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
18/10	Sanremese Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
11/10	Celle Varazze FBC Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	0	5	D
04/10	Borgosesia Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
27/09	Biellesse Italy Serie D	1-2	1-2	2	3	L
20/09	GSD Lascaris Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
16/09	USD Fezzanese Italy Serie D	–	0-3	–	–	L
13/09	Alessandria Italy Serie D	1-2	1-2	3	1	L
06/09	Asti Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	Sanremese Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ligorna vs Sestri Levante?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ligorna win (53%). Probabilities: Ligorna 53%, draw 26%, Sestri Levante 20%.

How many goals are expected in Ligorna vs Sestri Levante?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Ligorna 1.65 · Sestri Levante 0.93), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ligorna vs Sestri Levante?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.