Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 22/08, 22:00
Prediction: Estudiantes Merida vs Academia Puerto Cabello
Team pages: Estudiantes Merida · Academia Puerto Cabello
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Estudiantes Merida0.93
Academia Puerto Cabello1.38
1X2
Estudiantes Merida
Draw
Academia Puerto Cabello
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Estudiantes Merida
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Academia Puerto Cabello
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Estudiantes Merida
4–2
Academia Puerto Cabello
(6 last)
- Academia Puerto Cabello1-2Estudiantes Merida
- Academia Puerto Cabello1-2Estudiantes Merida
- Estudiantes Merida1-0Academia Puerto Cabello
- Estudiantes Merida2-1Academia Puerto Cabello
- Academia Puerto Cabello2-1Estudiantes Merida
- Academia Puerto Cabello1-0Estudiantes Merida
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Estudiantes Merida 1488 · Academia Puerto Cabello 1510
| Estudiantes Merida | Draw | Academia Puerto Cabello | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 30% | 46% |
| Market | 24% | 30% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Estudiantes Merida: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Estudiantes Merida | Academia Puerto Cabello | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.9 | 2.4 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 1.3 | 5.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Estudiantes Merida 4–0–2 Academia Puerto Cabello
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Academia Puerto Cabello | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 27/09/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Academia Puerto Cabello | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 19/04/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Academia Puerto Cabello |
| 07/08/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Academia Puerto Cabello |
| 17/02/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Academia Puerto Cabello | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 30/09/23 Venezuela Primera Division | Academia Puerto Cabello | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Estudiantes Merida |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Tachira | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Deportivo La Guaira | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Metropolitanos FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Portuguesa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Carabobo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Estudiantes Merida | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Caracas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| 9 | Trujillanos | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 11 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 12 | Monagas | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | UCV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Zamora | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Estudiantes Merida | Academia Puerto Cabello |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Zamora | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Caracas | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Metropolitanos FC | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Carabobo | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Academia Puerto Cabello (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Estudiantes Merida
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 10/08 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 06/08 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 04/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 14/05 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
Academia Puerto Cabello
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 09/08 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 07/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 03/08 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 08/06 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Estudiantes Merida vs Academia Puerto Cabello?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Academia Puerto Cabello win (46%). Probabilities: Estudiantes Merida 24%, draw 30%, Academia Puerto Cabello 46%.
How many goals are expected in Estudiantes Merida vs Academia Puerto Cabello?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Estudiantes Merida 0.93 · Academia Puerto Cabello 1.38), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Estudiantes Merida vs Academia Puerto Cabello?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.