Football · Georgia First League · 12/09, 14:00

Prediction: Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti

Team pages: Merani Martvili · Aragvi Dusheti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Merani Martvili1.35

Aragvi Dusheti0.99

1X2

44% 29% 27%

Merani Martvili Draw Aragvi Dusheti

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Merani Martvili 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLDLLL

Aragvi Dusheti 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLWWDL

Head-to-head

Merani Martvili 2–4–0 Aragvi Dusheti (6 last)

Aragvi Dusheti1-1Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili1-1Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti1-1Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili1-1Aragvi Dusheti
Merani Martvili2-0Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti1-2Merani Martvili

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Merani Martvili 1430 · Aragvi Dusheti 1519

	Merani Martvili	Draw	Aragvi Dusheti
Our model	44%	30%	26%
Market	45%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aragvi Dusheti (rating 1430 vs 1519).
H2H favours Merani Martvili: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Merani Martvili	Aragvi Dusheti
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.9	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
08:20 +21’	2.00	3.25	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Merani Martvili 2–4–0 Aragvi Dusheti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	1-1 HT 0-0	Merani Martvili
18/04/26 Georgia First League	Merani Martvili	1-1 HT 0-0	Aragvi Dusheti
05/10/20 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	1-1 HT 1-0	Merani Martvili
24/08/20 Georgia Cup	Merani Martvili	1-1 HT 0-0	Aragvi Dusheti
14/07/20 Georgia First League	Merani Martvili	2-0 HT 0-0	Aragvi Dusheti
13/06/19 Georgia Liga 3	Aragvi Dusheti	1-2 HT 0-1	Merani Martvili

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	24	13	8	3	32	20	47
2	FC Telavi	24	11	7	6	25	21	40
3	SFC Shturmi	24	9	9	6	25	22	36
4	Aragvi Dusheti	24	9	5	10	27	32	32
5	FC Sioni Bolnisi	24	8	8	8	32	29	32
6	Merani Martvili	24	8	7	9	25	27	31
7	FC Samtredia	24	9	4	11	37	38	31
8	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	24	7	7	10	27	34	28
9	FC Gori	24	6	7	11	23	30	25
10	Kolkheti Poti	24	5	8	11	31	31	23

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Merani Martvili	Aragvi Dusheti
Kolkheti Poti	0-2 L	1-1 D
FC Gareji	1-2 L	2-0 W
FC Telavi	0-1 L	0-1 L
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	0-0 D	1-1 D
SFC Shturmi	1-2 L	3-4 L
FC Gori	0-2 L	1-0 W
FC Samtredia	2-1 W	2-4 L
FC Sioni Bolnisi	0-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Aragvi Dusheti (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Merani Martvili

WDLWLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
29/08	FC Gareji Georgia First League	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
22/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
15/08	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
08/08	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
22/06	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
17/06	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
13/06	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
29/05	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
24/05	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W

Aragvi Dusheti

LDDWLLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-2	3-4	3	4	L
30/08	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
22/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
15/08	FC Gareji Georgia First League	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
08/08	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-2	2-4	4	4	L
22/06	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
17/06	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	2-2	3-2	1	6	W
13/06	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
29/05	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
24/05	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-2	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Merani Martvili win (44%). Probabilities: Merani Martvili 44%, draw 29%, Aragvi Dusheti 27%.

How many goals are expected in Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Merani Martvili 1.35 · Aragvi Dusheti 0.99), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.