Football · Spain Tercera Group 14 · 09/10, 20:00

Prediction: Santa Amalia vs SP Villafranca

Team pages: Santa Amalia · SP Villafranca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Santa Amalia1.66

SP Villafranca0.85

1X2

56% 25% 19%

Santa Amalia Draw SP Villafranca

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Santa Amalia 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDLLDWDD

SP Villafranca 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDLWLL

Head-to-head

Santa Amalia 1–1–2 SP Villafranca (4 last)

Santa Amalia0-2SP Villafranca
SP Villafranca1-2Santa Amalia
Santa Amalia1-1SP Villafranca
SP Villafranca2-0Santa Amalia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santa Amalia 1477 · SP Villafranca 1477

	Santa Amalia	Draw	SP Villafranca
Our model	55%	27%	18%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SP Villafranca: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santa Amalia	SP Villafranca
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/50/13%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	1.3 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.4	6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.70

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 15:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 1.60▼	Pinn 1.74 ★
X	3.20 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
2	2.75 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +2’	2.30	3.20	2.75
20:20 +8’	2.35▲	3.20	2.70▼
00:49 +10’	1.83▼	3.50▲	3.60▲
10:12 +4’	1.95▲	3.40▼	3.30▼
14:55 +15’	1.60▼	3.70▲	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:27	2.02	3.19	3.36
00:53 +6’	2.05▲	3.16▼	3.31▼
10:04 +13’	1.99▼	3.24▲	3.39▲
14:29 +41’	1.74▼	3.49▲	4.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Amalia 1–1–2 SP Villafranca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	Santa Amalia	0-2 HT 0-0	SP Villafranca
13/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 14	SP Villafranca	1-2 HT 1-1	Santa Amalia
30/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 14	Santa Amalia	1-1 HT 0-1	SP Villafranca
17/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 14	SP Villafranca	2-0 HT 1-0	Santa Amalia

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 14

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Azuaga	5	5	0	0	14	2	15
2	Moralo	5	3	2	0	9	5	11
3	AD Llerenense	4	3	1	0	3	0	10
4	Castuera	4	3	0	1	8	3	9
5	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	5	2	2	1	8	4	8
6	CD Gevora	5	2	2	1	8	9	8
7	CD Zafra	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
8	Villanovense	5	2	1	2	5	4	7
9	SP Villafranca	5	2	0	3	7	8	6
10	UD Montijo	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
11	Santa Amalia	5	1	3	1	6	5	6
12	CD Cabeza del Buey	5	1	2	2	6	6	5
13	Jerez	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
14	CF Jaraiz	5	1	1	3	6	9	4
15	CD Quintana	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
16	At. Pueblonuevo	5	0	3	2	5	10	3
17	Plasencia	4	0	1	3	2	8	1
18	CD Guadiana	5	0	1	4	2	11	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santa Amalia	SP Villafranca
CD Diocesano	0-0 D	4-4 D
Don Benito	0-1 L	1-0 W
Jerez	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: SP Villafranca (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santa Amalia

DLLDLLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	At. Pueblonuevo Spain Tercera Group 14	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
13/09	CD Quintana Spain Tercera Group 14	1-0	3-0	6	13	W
06/09	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
10/05	UD Montijo Spain Tercera Group 14	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
03/05	Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/04	CD Diocesano Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
19/04	SP Villafranca Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
12/04	Don Benito Spain Tercera Group 14	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
04/04	Jerez Spain Tercera Group 14	2-0	2-2	2	6	D

SP Villafranca

WLWWWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-2	–	–	L
20/09	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	CD Guadiana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-0	–	–	W
06/09	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-4	–	–	L
10/05	CD Diocesano Spain Tercera Group 14	2-1	4-4	4	10	D
03/05	Jerez Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/04	Don Benito Spain Tercera Group 14	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
19/04	Santa Amalia Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	2-0	1	5	W
12/04	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
03/04	CD Gevora Spain Tercera Group 14	0-1	3-1	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santa Amalia vs SP Villafranca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santa Amalia win (56%). Probabilities: Santa Amalia 56%, draw 25%, SP Villafranca 19%.

How many goals are expected in Santa Amalia vs SP Villafranca?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Santa Amalia 1.66 · SP Villafranca 0.85), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Santa Amalia vs SP Villafranca?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.