Football · Spain Tercera Group 14 · 17/10, 18:30

Prediction: AD Llerenense vs E.F. Puebla de la Calzada

Team pages: AD Llerenense

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

AD Llerenense1.56

E.F. Puebla de la Calzada0.99

1X2

50% 27% 23%

AD Llerenense Draw E.F. Puebla de la Calzada

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Llerenense 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDDLWWWWDW

E.F. Puebla de la Calzada 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLDWWLDL

Head-to-head

AD Llerenense 3–1 E.F. Puebla de la Calzada (4 last)

E.F. Puebla de la Calzada4-1AD Llerenense
AD Llerenense1-0E.F. Puebla de la Calzada
AD Llerenense2-1E.F. Puebla de la Calzada
E.F. Puebla de la Calzada0-3AD Llerenense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Llerenense 1545 · E.F. Puebla de la Calzada 1474

	AD Llerenense	Draw	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada
Our model	49%	28%	23%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AD Llerenense (rating 1545 vs 1474).
H2H favours AD Llerenense: 3-0-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Llerenense	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/75/25%	33/0/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 6	4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.3	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.40

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.80▲	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	5.00 → 3.80▼	Pinn 4.01 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:28 +53’	1.57	3.60	5.00
14:52 +8’	1.80▲	3.40▼	3.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:41 +80’	1.80	3.33	4.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Llerenense 3–0–1 E.F. Puebla de la Calzada

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	4-1 HT 2-0	AD Llerenense
04/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	AD Llerenense	1-0	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada
01/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 14	AD Llerenense	2-1 HT 0-1	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada
19/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 14	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	0-3 HT 0-3	AD Llerenense

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 14

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Azuaga	6	5	0	1	14	4	15
2	Moralo	6	4	2	0	12	6	14
3	AD Llerenense	5	4	1	0	5	1	13
4	Castuera	5	4	0	1	13	3	12
5	Villanovense	6	3	1	2	7	4	10
6	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	6	2	2	2	9	7	8
7	CD Zafra	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
8	CD Gevora	6	2	2	2	9	11	8
9	Jerez	5	2	1	2	8	7	7
10	UD Montijo	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
11	SP Villafranca	5	2	0	3	7	8	6
12	CD Cabeza del Buey	6	1	3	2	6	6	6
13	Santa Amalia	5	1	3	1	6	5	6
14	CF Jaraiz	6	1	2	3	6	9	5
15	CD Quintana	5	1	2	2	2	5	5
16	At. Pueblonuevo	6	0	3	3	5	15	3
17	Plasencia	5	0	2	3	2	8	2
18	CD Guadiana	6	0	1	5	3	15	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Llerenense

LDDLWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	CD Gevora Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	2-1	11	8	W
27/09	CD Zafra Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
19/09	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/09	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
06/09	CD Guadiana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
09/05	Calamonte Spain Tercera Group 14	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
01/05	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada Spain Tercera Group 14	0-2	1-4	6	9	L
26/04	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	CP Montehermoso Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/04	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-2	–	–	L

E.F. Puebla de la Calzada

WLWLDWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-3	–	–	L
03/10	At. Pueblonuevo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-0	–	–	D
27/09	CD Quintana Spain Tercera Group 14	0-2	1-2	10	3	L
19/09	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-0	–	–	W
13/09	Castuera Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-0	–	–	W
06/09	Jerez Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-2	–	–	D
10/05	CD Cabeza del Buey Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L
01/05	AD Llerenense Spain Tercera Group 14	2-0	4-1	4	9	W
26/04	CD Badajoz Spain Tercera Group 14	0-3	0-5	3	1	L
19/04	At. Pueblonuevo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Llerenense vs E.F. Puebla de la Calzada?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Llerenense win (50%). Probabilities: AD Llerenense 50%, draw 27%, E.F. Puebla de la Calzada 23%.

How many goals are expected in AD Llerenense vs E.F. Puebla de la Calzada?

The model expects 2.55 goals (AD Llerenense 1.56 · E.F. Puebla de la Calzada 0.99), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Llerenense vs E.F. Puebla de la Calzada?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.