Football · Spain Tercera Group 14 · 11/10, 17:30

Prediction: CF Jaraiz vs CD Cabeza del Buey

Team pages: CF Jaraiz · CD Cabeza del Buey

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

CF Jaraiz1.5

CD Cabeza del Buey0.96

1X2

49% 28% 23%

CF Jaraiz Draw CD Cabeza del Buey

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CF Jaraiz 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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CD Cabeza del Buey 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

CF Jaraiz 1–1–0 CD Cabeza del Buey (2 last)

CF Jaraiz2-1CD Cabeza del Buey
CD Cabeza del Buey0-0CF Jaraiz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CF Jaraiz 1492 · CD Cabeza del Buey 1502

	CF Jaraiz	Draw	CD Cabeza del Buey
Our model	48%	29%	23%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 15.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 14 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CF Jaraiz	CD Cabeza del Buey
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.4	1 / 2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 6.4	– / 9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7 / 0	7 / 2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.30

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.83▼	Pinn 2.08 ★
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	3.10 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:38 +6’	2.10	3.20	3.10
00:32 +8’	1.83▼	3.30▲	3.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:12 +190’	2.08	3.15	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CF Jaraiz 1–1–0 CD Cabeza del Buey

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	CF Jaraiz	2-1	CD Cabeza del Buey
03/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	CD Cabeza del Buey	0-0 HT 0-0	CF Jaraiz

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 14

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Azuaga	5	5	0	0	14	2	15
2	Moralo	5	3	2	0	9	5	11
3	AD Llerenense	4	3	1	0	3	0	10
4	Castuera	4	3	0	1	8	3	9
5	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	5	2	2	1	8	4	8
6	CD Gevora	5	2	2	1	8	9	8
7	CD Zafra	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
8	Villanovense	5	2	1	2	5	4	7
9	SP Villafranca	5	2	0	3	7	8	6
10	UD Montijo	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
11	Santa Amalia	5	1	3	1	6	5	6
12	CD Cabeza del Buey	5	1	2	2	6	6	5
13	Jerez	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
14	CF Jaraiz	5	1	1	3	6	9	4
15	CD Quintana	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
16	At. Pueblonuevo	5	0	3	2	5	10	3
17	Plasencia	4	0	1	3	2	8	1
18	CD Guadiana	5	0	1	4	2	11	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CF Jaraiz	CD Cabeza del Buey
UD Montijo	0-2 L	3-1 W
Villanovense	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CF Jaraiz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	UD Montijo Spain Tercera Group 14	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
27/09	SP Villafranca Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/09	AD Llerenense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-3	–	–	L
06/09	At. Pueblonuevo Spain Tercera Group 14	2-2	2-2	8	5	D
17/05	CD Badajoz Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
10/05	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
03/05	CD Cabeza del Buey Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/04	AD Llerenense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	CD Badajoz Spain Tercera Group 14	0-4	1-4	10	13	L

CD Cabeza del Buey

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	CD Guadiana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	Jerez Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/09	UD Montijo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/04	CP Montehermoso Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/04	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	1-2	2-3	9	9	L
12/04	Jerez Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CF Jaraiz vs CD Cabeza del Buey?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CF Jaraiz win (49%). Probabilities: CF Jaraiz 49%, draw 28%, CD Cabeza del Buey 23%.

How many goals are expected in CF Jaraiz vs CD Cabeza del Buey?

The model expects 2.46 goals (CF Jaraiz 1.5 · CD Cabeza del Buey 0.96), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CF Jaraiz vs CD Cabeza del Buey?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.