Football · Spain Tercera Group 14 · 18/10, 12:00

Prediction: SP Villafranca vs CD Gevora

Team pages: SP Villafranca · CD Gevora

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

SP Villafranca1.84

CD Gevora1.23

1X2

50% 26% 24%

SP Villafranca Draw CD Gevora

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SP Villafranca 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWDLWLLW

CD Gevora 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWDWDL

Head-to-head

SP Villafranca 2–0 CD Gevora (2 last)

CD Gevora1-3SP Villafranca
SP Villafranca2-0CD Gevora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SP Villafranca 1511 · CD Gevora 1485

	SP Villafranca	Draw	CD Gevora
Our model	51%	25%	24%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SP Villafranca: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SP Villafranca	CD Gevora
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.6	0 / 1.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.2	5 / 1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.40

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.97 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:42 +11’	1.80	3.40	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:13 +160’	1.79	3.40	3.97

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SP Villafranca 2–0–0 CD Gevora

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	CD Gevora	1-3 HT 1-0	SP Villafranca
23/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 14	SP Villafranca	2-0	CD Gevora

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 14

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Azuaga	6	5	0	1	14	4	15
2	Moralo	6	4	2	0	12	6	14
3	AD Llerenense	5	4	1	0	5	1	13
4	Castuera	5	4	0	1	13	3	12
5	Villanovense	6	3	1	2	7	4	10
6	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	6	2	2	2	9	7	8
7	CD Zafra	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
8	CD Gevora	6	2	2	2	9	11	8
9	Jerez	5	2	1	2	8	7	7
10	UD Montijo	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
11	SP Villafranca	5	2	0	3	7	8	6
12	CD Cabeza del Buey	6	1	3	2	6	6	6
13	Santa Amalia	5	1	3	1	6	5	6
14	CF Jaraiz	6	1	2	3	6	9	5
15	CD Quintana	5	1	2	2	2	5	5
16	At. Pueblonuevo	6	0	3	3	5	15	3
17	Plasencia	5	0	2	3	2	8	2
18	CD Guadiana	6	0	1	5	3	15	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SP Villafranca

LWWWDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Santa Amalia Spain Tercera Group 14	2-0	3-1	1	7	W
27/09	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-2	–	–	L
20/09	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	CD Guadiana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-0	–	–	W
06/09	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-4	–	–	L
10/05	CD Diocesano Spain Tercera Group 14	2-1	4-4	4	10	D
03/05	Jerez Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/04	Don Benito Spain Tercera Group 14	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
19/04	Santa Amalia Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	2-0	1	5	W
12/04	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-2	2	6	L

CD Gevora

WWDLLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	AD Llerenense Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	1-2	1	8	L
04/10	Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	At. Pueblonuevo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-1	–	–	W
20/09	CD Quintana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	–	4-2	–	–	W
05/09	Castuera Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-5	–	–	L
10/05	CD Badajoz Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-3	–	–	L
03/05	At. Pueblonuevo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	UD Montijo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
19/04	Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14	0-1	2-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SP Villafranca vs CD Gevora?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SP Villafranca win (50%). Probabilities: SP Villafranca 50%, draw 26%, CD Gevora 24%.

How many goals are expected in SP Villafranca vs CD Gevora?

The model expects 3.06 goals (SP Villafranca 1.84 · CD Gevora 1.23), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SP Villafranca vs CD Gevora?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.