Football · Spain Tercera Group 14 · 18/10, 12:30
Prediction: UD Montijo vs Santa Amalia
Team pages: UD Montijo · Santa Amalia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.27Total
UD Montijo1.29
Santa Amalia0.97
1X2
UD Montijo
Draw
Santa Amalia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
UD Montijo
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Santa Amalia
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
UD Montijo
3–3
Santa Amalia
(6 last)
- UD Montijo2-1Santa Amalia
- Santa Amalia1-0UD Montijo
- UD Montijo1-0Santa Amalia
- Santa Amalia2-0UD Montijo
- Santa Amalia2-0UD Montijo
- UD Montijo3-0Santa Amalia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UD Montijo 1481 · Santa Amalia 1454
| UD Montijo | Draw | Santa Amalia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UD Montijo | Santa Amalia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.7 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.2 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 17/33/50% | 25/50/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.5 | 3.5 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0 | 5.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · UD Montijo 3–0–3 Santa Amalia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 14 | UD Montijo | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Santa Amalia |
| 11/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 14 | Santa Amalia | 1-0 | UD Montijo |
| 06/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 14 | UD Montijo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Santa Amalia |
| 24/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 14 | Santa Amalia | 2-0 | UD Montijo |
| 04/03/18 Spain Tercera Group 14 | Santa Amalia | 2-0 HT 1-0 | UD Montijo |
| 15/10/17 Spain Tercera Group 14 | UD Montijo | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Santa Amalia |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 14
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Azuaga | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Moralo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | AD Llerenense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Castuera | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Villanovense | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | E.F. Puebla de la Calzada | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 8 |
| 7 | CD Zafra | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | CD Gevora | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| 9 | Jerez | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | UD Montijo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 11 | SP Villafranca | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 12 | CD Cabeza del Buey | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | CF Jaraiz | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 5 |
| 15 | CD Quintana | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 16 | At. Pueblonuevo | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 3 |
| 17 | Plasencia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| 18 | CD Guadiana | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UD Montijo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | CD Zafra Spain Tercera Group 14 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 04/10 | CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 27/09 | Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | CD Guadiana Spain Tercera Group 14 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14 |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 06/09 | CD Cabeza del Buey Spain Tercera Group 14 |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Santa Amalia Spain Tercera Group 14 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14 |
1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | CD Gevora Spain Tercera Group 14 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 19/04 | Calamonte Spain Tercera Group 14 |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
Santa Amalia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | SP Villafranca Spain Tercera Group 14 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 27/09 | Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14 |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 20/09 | At. Pueblonuevo Spain Tercera Group 14 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | CD Quintana Spain Tercera Group 14 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 13 | W |
| 06/09 | Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | UD Montijo Spain Tercera Group 14 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14 |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | CD Diocesano Spain Tercera Group 14 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | SP Villafranca Spain Tercera Group 14 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 12/04 | Don Benito Spain Tercera Group 14 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UD Montijo vs Santa Amalia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a UD Montijo win (43%). Probabilities: UD Montijo 43%, draw 29%, Santa Amalia 27%.
How many goals are expected in UD Montijo vs Santa Amalia?
The model expects 2.27 goals (UD Montijo 1.29 · Santa Amalia 0.97), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in UD Montijo vs Santa Amalia?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.