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Football · Spain Copa Federacion · 12/08, 20:00

Prediction: Mexico FC vs Las Rozas

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.1Total
Mexico FC1.38
Las Rozas1.72
1X2
29% 27% 44%
Mexico FC Draw Las Rozas
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Mexico FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)
LWDLWDDDLW
Las Rozas 4-1-5 (W-D-L)
WLLWLLWWDL
Head-to-head
Mexico FC 0–4–2 Las Rozas (6 last)
  • Las Rozas1-1Mexico FC
  • Mexico FC2-2Las Rozas
  • Mexico FC1-3Las Rozas
  • Mexico FC0-0Las Rozas
  • Las Rozas1-1Mexico FC
  • Las Rozas2-1Mexico FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mexico FC 1489 · Las Rozas 1509
Mexico FCDrawLas Rozas
Our model30%26%45%
Market28%29%43%
Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Las Rozas: 2-4-0.
  • Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Mexico FCLas Rozas
Goals for / against (FT)1.3 / 1.71.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 0.80.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/50/30%30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)2 / 42 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)5.3 / 0.34.9 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mexico FC 0–4–2 Las Rozas

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DateHomeScoreAway
22/02/26
Spain Tercera Group 7
Las Rozas1-1
HT 1-0
Mexico FC
11/10/25
Spain Tercera Group 7
Mexico FC2-2
HT 2-0
Las Rozas
20/08/25
Spain Copa Federacion
Mexico FC1-3
HT 0-2
Las Rozas
01/03/25
Spain Tercera Group 7
Mexico FC0-0
HT 0-0
Las Rozas
20/10/24
Spain Tercera Group 7
Las Rozas1-1
HT 1-1
Mexico FC
01/05/24
Spain Tercera Group 7
Las Rozas2-1
HT 1-0
Mexico FC

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentMexico FCLas Rozas
Trival Valderas 0-2 L 1-3 L
Torrejon 3-3 D 3-0 W
CD Galapagar 3-1 W 1-3 L
Record vs common 1 W 1 D 1 L 1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mexico FC

LWDLWDDDLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
10/05 Leganes B
Spain Tercera Group 7
 1-1 2-1 54 W
03/05 Trival Valderas
Spain Tercera Group 7
 0-2 0-2 84 L
26/04 Torrejon
Spain Tercera Group 7
 1-3 3-3 46 D
18/04 AD Parla
Spain Tercera Group 7
 0-2 2-2 410 D
11/04 Alcorcon B
Spain Tercera Group 7
 0-0 1-1 04 D
02/04 CD Galapagar
Spain Tercera Group 7
 1-0 3-1 49 W
28/03 CDF Tres Cantos
Spain Tercera Group 7
 0-0 0-5 75 L
22/03 RCD Carabanchel
Spain Tercera Group 7
 0-0 0-0 23 D
14/03 CD Mostoles URJC
Spain Tercera Group 7
 0-0 1-0 57 W
08/03 UD San Sebastián Reyes B
Spain Tercera Group 7
 1-0 1-2 14 L

Las Rozas

WLLWLLWWDL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
07/06 Trival Valderas
Spain Tercera - Play-Offs
 0-1 1-3 84 L
31/05 Trival Valderas
Spain Tercera - Play-Offs
 0-0 1-1 61 D
24/05 Torrejon
Spain Tercera - Play-Offs
 1-0 3-0 74 W
17/05 Torrejon
Spain Tercera Group 7
 0-0 1-0 36 W
10/05 CD Galapagar
Spain Tercera Group 7
 0-2 1-3 04 L
03/05 Union Adarve
Spain Tercera Group 7
 0-1 0-2 144 L
26/04 SAD Villaverde San Andres
Spain Tercera Group 7
 2-0 5-0 23 W
19/04 Atletico Madrid C
Spain Tercera Group 7
 0-2 3-5 57 L
12/04 Siello FC
Spain Tercera Group 7
 0-2 1-2 45 L
01/04 Pozuelo Alarcon
Spain Tercera Group 7
 1-0 1-0 211 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mexico FC vs Las Rozas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Las Rozas win (44%). Probabilities: Mexico FC 29%, draw 27%, Las Rozas 44%.

How many goals are expected in Mexico FC vs Las Rozas?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Mexico FC 1.38 · Las Rozas 1.72), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mexico FC vs Las Rozas?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.