Football · Spain Copa Federacion · 12/08, 20:00

Prediction: Torrejon vs Union Adarve

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Torrejon1.52

Union Adarve1.28

1X2

41% 28% 30%

Torrejon Draw Union Adarve

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Torrejon 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDWWLL

Union Adarve 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DLWDWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Torrejon 0–4–2 Union Adarve (6 last)

Union Adarve2-2Torrejon
Torrejon0-0Union Adarve
Union Adarve3-2Torrejon
Torrejon0-0Union Adarve
Union Adarve1-1Torrejon
Torrejon0-2Union Adarve

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Torrejon 1525 · Union Adarve 1554

	Torrejon	Draw	Union Adarve
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union Adarve: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Torrejon	Union Adarve
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	2.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.3	2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.1	5.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
14:09 +10’	2.20	3.10	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Torrejon 0–4–2 Union Adarve

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Union Adarve	2-2 HT 2-0	Torrejon
26/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	0-0	Union Adarve
20/08/23 Spain Copa Federacion	Union Adarve	3-2 HT 2-1	Torrejon
31/01/21 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Adarve
01/11/20 Spain Tercera Group 7	Union Adarve	1-1	Torrejon
27/10/19 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	0-2 HT 0-1	Union Adarve

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Torrejon	Union Adarve
Las Rozas	0-3 L	2-0 W
Racing Madrid	2-1 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Union Adarve (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Torrejon

WDWDWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	0-1	0-3	11	4	L
17/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
10/05	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
03/05	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
26/04	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	3-1	3-3	3	6	D
19/04	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-2	1	4	W
12/04	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
05/04	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	3-2	4	8	W
29/03	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
22/03	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-1	3	6	W

Union Adarve

DLWDWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	5-0	4	3	W
03/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
26/04	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
19/04	SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7	3-0	3-0	1	11	W
11/04	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-3	3	7	L
02/04	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
28/03	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
22/03	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	4-3	4	6	W
15/03	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	11	3	L
08/03	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-2	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Torrejon vs Union Adarve?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Torrejon win (41%). Probabilities: Torrejon 41%, draw 28%, Union Adarve 30%.

How many goals are expected in Torrejon vs Union Adarve?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Torrejon 1.52 · Union Adarve 1.28), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Torrejon vs Union Adarve?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.