Prediction: Paganese vs Afragolese 1944
Team pages: Paganese · Afragolese 1944
- Paganese1-1Afragolese 1944
- Afragolese 19442-0Paganese
| Paganese | Draw | Afragolese 1944 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paganese (rating 1536 vs 1464).
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Paganese | Afragolese 1944 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.7 | 0.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 67/17/17% | 40/0/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.3 | 1.3 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0 | 2.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Paganese 0–1–1 Afragolese 1944
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Italy Serie D | Paganese | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Afragolese 1944 |
| 30/11/25 Italy Serie D | Afragolese 1944 | 2-0 | Paganese |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Reggina | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | ASD CastrumFavara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Igea Virtus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Nissa FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sambiase | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | ASD Polisportiva Modica Calcio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | ASD Ragusa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 | Vigor Lamezia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Milazzo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | Enna Calcio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 | ASD Licata | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 | Città di Gela | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| 17 | Siracusa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 |
| 18 | Trapani | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -5 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Paganese | Afragolese 1944 |
|---|---|---|
| Martina | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| FBC Gravina | 0-1 L | 0-6 L |
| ASD Ferrandina 17890 | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Paganese (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Paganese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | USD Latte Dolce Italy Serie D |
2-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Unipomezia Italy Serie D |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Martina Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Citta di Fasano Italy Serie D |
0-3 | 0-6 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | SS Nola 1925 Italy Serie D |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 19/04 | FBC Gravina Italy Serie D |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/04 | Afragolese 1944 Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 29/03 | ASD Ferrandina 17890 Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 22/03 | Martina Italy Serie D |
3-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/03 | Manfredonia Italy Serie D |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Afragolese 1944
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Sarnese Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Gelbison Italy Serie D |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | FC Francavilla Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 26/04 | FBC Gravina Italy Serie D |
– | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 19/04 | Real Aversa 1925 Italy Serie D |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | Paganese Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 02/04 | Virtus Francavilla Italy Serie D |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 29/03 | Martina Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 22/03 | Fidelis Andria Italy Serie D |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/03 | ASD Ferrandina 17890 Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Paganese vs Afragolese 1944?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Paganese win (47%). Probabilities: Paganese 47%, draw 28%, Afragolese 1944 25%.
How many goals are expected in Paganese vs Afragolese 1944?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Paganese 1.55 · Afragolese 1944 1.08), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Paganese vs Afragolese 1944?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.