Football · Italy Serie D · 12/09, 15:00
Prediction: USD Latte Dolce vs Paganese
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
USD Latte Dolce1.25
Paganese1.36
1X2
USD Latte Dolce
Draw
Paganese
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
USD Latte Dolce
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Paganese
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
USD Latte Dolce
1–1–0
Paganese
(2 last)
- Paganese1-1USD Latte Dolce
- USD Latte Dolce4-1Paganese
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · USD Latte Dolce 1522 · Paganese 1515
| USD Latte Dolce | Draw | Paganese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| USD Latte Dolce | Paganese | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 29/57/14% | 67/0/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5 | 2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.6 | 2.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · USD Latte Dolce 1–1–0 Paganese
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/25 Italy Serie D | Paganese | 1-1 HT 0-1 | USD Latte Dolce |
| 21/12/24 Italy Serie D | USD Latte Dolce | 4-1 | Paganese |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Reggina | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | ASD CastrumFavara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Igea Virtus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Nissa FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sambiase | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | ASD Polisportiva Modica Calcio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | ASD Ragusa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 | Vigor Lamezia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Milazzo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | Enna Calcio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 | ASD Licata | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 | Città di Gela | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| 17 | Siracusa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 |
| 18 | Trapani | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -5 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
USD Latte Dolce
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Polisportiva Ossese Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Budoni Italy Serie D |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | Cassino Italy Serie D |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | Montespaccato Italy Serie D |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 12/04 | US Palmese 1914 Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 02/04 | Nocerina Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Anzio Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 22/03 | Cynthialbalonga Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 15/03 | Scafatese Italy Serie D |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 01/03 | ASD Trastevere Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Paganese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Unipomezia Italy Serie D |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Martina Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Citta di Fasano Italy Serie D |
0-3 | 0-6 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | SS Nola 1925 Italy Serie D |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 19/04 | FBC Gravina Italy Serie D |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/04 | Afragolese 1944 Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 29/03 | ASD Ferrandina 17890 Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 22/03 | Martina Italy Serie D |
3-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/03 | Manfredonia Italy Serie D |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 01/03 | Barletta Italy Serie D |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in USD Latte Dolce vs Paganese?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Paganese win (38%). Probabilities: USD Latte Dolce 33%, draw 28%, Paganese 38%.
How many goals are expected in USD Latte Dolce vs Paganese?
The model expects 2.61 goals (USD Latte Dolce 1.25 · Paganese 1.36), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in USD Latte Dolce vs Paganese?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.