Football · Italy Serie D · 13/09, 15:00
Prediction: ASD Trastevere vs Gelbison
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
ASD Trastevere1.27
Gelbison1.21
1X2
ASD Trastevere
Draw
Gelbison
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
ASD Trastevere
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Gelbison
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
ASD Trastevere
1–2–1
Gelbison
(4 last)
- Gelbison3-3ASD Trastevere
- ASD Trastevere1-2Gelbison
- Gelbison0-0ASD Trastevere
- ASD Trastevere1-0Gelbison
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · ASD Trastevere 1501 · Gelbison 1547
| ASD Trastevere | Draw | Gelbison | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 30% | 34% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gelbison (rating 1501 vs 1547).
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| ASD Trastevere | Gelbison | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/17/33% | 25/50/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.7 | 2.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD Trastevere 1–2–1 Gelbison
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/25 Italy Serie D | Gelbison | 3-3 HT 1-1 | ASD Trastevere |
| 01/12/24 Italy Serie D | ASD Trastevere | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Gelbison |
| 09/04/17 Italy Serie D | Gelbison | 0-0 | ASD Trastevere |
| 27/11/16 Italy Serie D | ASD Trastevere | 1-0 | Gelbison |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Reggina | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | ASD CastrumFavara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Igea Virtus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Nissa FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sambiase | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | ASD Polisportiva Modica Calcio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | ASD Ragusa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 | Vigor Lamezia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Milazzo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | Enna Calcio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 | ASD Licata | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 | Città di Gela | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| 17 | Siracusa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 |
| 18 | Trapani | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -5 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
ASD Trastevere
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | US Venafro Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Monastir Kosmoto Italy Serie D |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Anzio Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Cynthialbalonga Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Olbia Italy Serie D |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 12/04 | Monastir Kosmoto Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 02/04 | Scafatese Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 29/03 | Virtus Flaminia Italy Serie D |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 22/03 | Ischia Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 15/03 | Atletico Lodigiani Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Gelbison
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Afragolese 1944 Italy Serie D |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | Città di Gela Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Enna Calcio Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | Acireale Italy Serie D |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | ASD Sancataldese Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 29/03 | ACR Messina Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/03 | Igea Virtus Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 15/03 | AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 01/03 | Vigor Lamezia Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 22/02 | Vibonese Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in ASD Trastevere vs Gelbison?
According to our model, the most likely result is a ASD Trastevere win (37%). Probabilities: ASD Trastevere 37%, draw 29%, Gelbison 34%.
How many goals are expected in ASD Trastevere vs Gelbison?
The model expects 2.48 goals (ASD Trastevere 1.27 · Gelbison 1.21), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in ASD Trastevere vs Gelbison?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.