Football · Italy Serie D · 27/09, 15:00

Prediction: Atletico Lodigiani vs ASD Trastevere

Team pages: Atletico Lodigiani · ASD Trastevere

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Atletico Lodigiani1.32

ASD Trastevere1.34

1X2

36% 28% 36%

Atletico Lodigiani Draw ASD Trastevere

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Lodigiani 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWLLDL

ASD Trastevere 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLWWDL

Head-to-head

Atletico Lodigiani 1–1–3 ASD Trastevere (5 last)

Atletico Lodigiani1-2ASD Trastevere
ASD Trastevere1-0Atletico Lodigiani
ASD Trastevere2-1Atletico Lodigiani
Atletico Lodigiani1-1ASD Trastevere
ASD Trastevere1-3Atletico Lodigiani

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Lodigiani 1425 · ASD Trastevere 1507

	Atletico Lodigiani	Draw	ASD Trastevere
Our model	35%	29%	36%
Market	36%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASD Trastevere (rating 1425 vs 1507).
H2H favours ASD Trastevere: 3-1-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Lodigiani	ASD Trastevere
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/17/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	2.8 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.25

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:23 +2’	2.50	3.25	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Lodigiani 1–1–3 ASD Trastevere

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Italy Serie D	Atletico Lodigiani	1-2 HT 0-1	ASD Trastevere
01/11/25 Italy Serie D	ASD Trastevere	1-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Lodigiani
02/02/25 Italy Serie D	ASD Trastevere	2-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Lodigiani
06/10/24 Italy Serie D	Atletico Lodigiani	1-1 HT 1-1	ASD Trastevere
01/09/24 Italy Serie D Cup	ASD Trastevere	1-3 HT 0-2	Atletico Lodigiani

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	4	4	0	0	13	0	12
2	Igea Virtus	4	3	1	0	13	8	10
3	Sambiase	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
4	Vibonese	4	2	1	1	11	5	7
5	Nissa FC	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	4	1	3	0	7	2	6
7	Milazzo	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
8	Calcio Avola 1949	4	2	0	2	7	10	6
9	ASD Licata	4	1	2	1	3	7	5
10	Modica	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
12	ASD CastrumFavara	4	1	1	2	5	4	4
13	Città di Gela	4	1	1	2	4	5	3
14	ASD Ragusa	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
15	Vigor Lamezia	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
16	Siracusa	4	2	2	0	7	4	1
17	Enna Calcio	4	0	1	3	0	9	1
18	Trapani	4	0	0	4	1	10	-5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Lodigiani	ASD Trastevere
Monastir Kosmoto	1-5 L	0-1 L
Cynthialbalonga	2-3 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: ASD Trastevere (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Lodigiani

LWDLLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Certosa Vigor Campagnano Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
16/09	USD Latte Dolce Italy Serie D	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
12/09	Monastir Kosmoto Italy Serie D	0-2	1-5	9	5	L
06/09	Cynthialbalonga Italy Serie D	2-1	2-3	5	3	L
03/05	Cassino Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
26/04	Real Monterotondo Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L
19/04	Budoni Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/04	Nocerina Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
28/03	Cynthialbalonga Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
22/03	US Palmese 1914 Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L

ASD Trastevere

WDLWLLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Paganese Italy Serie D	1-4	1-6	8	1	L
16/09	Polisportiva Ossese Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
13/09	Gelbison Italy Serie D	2-0	2-1	8	6	W
06/09	US Venafro Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
16/05	Monastir Kosmoto Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
03/05	Anzio Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/04	Cynthialbalonga Italy Serie D	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
19/04	Olbia Italy Serie D	–	2-3	–	–	L
12/04	Monastir Kosmoto Italy Serie D	0-1	2-2	8	2	D
02/04	Scafatese Italy Serie D	1-0	3-2	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Lodigiani vs ASD Trastevere?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Lodigiani win (36%). Probabilities: Atletico Lodigiani 36%, draw 28%, ASD Trastevere 36%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Lodigiani vs ASD Trastevere?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Atletico Lodigiani 1.32 · ASD Trastevere 1.34), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Lodigiani vs ASD Trastevere?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.