Football · Italy Serie D · 27/09, 15:00

Prediction: Paganese vs Gelbison

Team pages: Paganese · Gelbison

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Paganese1.69

Gelbison1.05

1X2

51% 26% 22%

Paganese Draw Gelbison

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Paganese 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWLWWWDW

Gelbison 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDLWL

Head-to-head

Paganese 0–3–1 Gelbison (4 last)

Paganese1-1Gelbison
Gelbison1-1Paganese
Paganese1-1Gelbison
Gelbison3-0Paganese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paganese 1564 · Gelbison 1521

	Paganese	Draw	Gelbison
Our model	51%	26%	22%
Market	51%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paganese (rating 1564 vs 1521).
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paganese	Gelbison
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.9	0.2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	57/29/14%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.7	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.40

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:45 +11’	1.75	3.40	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Paganese 0–3–1 Gelbison

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/25 Italy Serie D	Paganese	1-1	Gelbison
24/11/24 Italy Serie D	Gelbison	1-1	Paganese
03/03/24 Italy Serie D	Paganese	1-1	Gelbison
28/10/23 Italy Serie D	Gelbison	3-0	Paganese

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	4	4	0	0	13	0	12
2	Igea Virtus	4	3	1	0	13	8	10
3	Sambiase	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
4	Vibonese	4	2	1	1	11	5	7
5	Nissa FC	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	4	1	3	0	7	2	6
7	Milazzo	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
8	Calcio Avola 1949	4	2	0	2	7	10	6
9	ASD Licata	4	1	2	1	3	7	5
10	Modica	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
12	ASD CastrumFavara	4	1	1	2	5	4	4
13	Città di Gela	4	1	1	2	4	5	3
14	ASD Ragusa	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
15	Vigor Lamezia	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
16	Siracusa	4	2	2	0	7	4	1
17	Enna Calcio	4	0	1	3	0	9	1
18	Trapani	4	0	0	4	1	10	-5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paganese	Gelbison
ASD Trastevere	6-1 W	1-2 L
Afragolese 1944	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Paganese (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paganese

DDLWLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	ASD Trastevere Italy Serie D	4-1	6-1	7	1	W
16/09	Afragolese 1944 Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
12/09	USD Latte Dolce Italy Serie D	2-2	3-2	3	4	W
06/09	Unipomezia Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
17/05	Martina Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
03/05	Citta di Fasano Italy Serie D	0-3	0-6	6	2	L
26/04	SS Nola 1925 Italy Serie D	2-0	5-0	3	1	W
19/04	FBC Gravina Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/04	Afragolese 1944 Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	7	0	D
29/03	ASD Ferrandina 17890 Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D

Gelbison

DWWWWWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Sarnese Italy Serie D	0-1	1-3	2	3	L
16/09	Budoni Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
13/09	ASD Trastevere Italy Serie D	0-2	1-2	7	6	L
06/09	Afragolese 1944 Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/05	Città di Gela Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/04	Enna Calcio Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
19/04	Acireale Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
12/04	ASD Sancataldese Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
29/03	ACR Messina Italy Serie D	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
22/03	Igea Virtus Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paganese vs Gelbison?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Paganese win (51%). Probabilities: Paganese 51%, draw 26%, Gelbison 22%.

How many goals are expected in Paganese vs Gelbison?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Paganese 1.69 · Gelbison 1.05), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Paganese vs Gelbison?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.