Football · England Premier League 2 · 18/10, 13:00

Prediction: Leeds U21 vs Crystal Palace U21

Team pages: Leeds U21 · Crystal Palace U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.88Total

Leeds U211.93

Crystal Palace U211.95

1X2

38% 23% 39%

Leeds U21 Draw Crystal Palace U21

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Leeds U21 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWLDW

Crystal Palace U21 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDLDWL

Head-to-head

Leeds U21 0–1–2 Crystal Palace U21 (3 last)

Crystal Palace U213-2Leeds U21
Leeds U211-1Crystal Palace U21
Leeds U211-7Crystal Palace U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leeds U21 1456 · Crystal Palace U21 1480

	Leeds U21	Draw	Crystal Palace U21
Our model	38%	23%	39%
Market	38%	23%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.88 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Crystal Palace U21: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leeds U21	Crystal Palace U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.4	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.7 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.90

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.88

Under 3.51.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.41
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.13 ★
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.37

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:56 +9’	2.35	3.90	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:53 +13’	2.39	4.02	2.35
11:03 +4’	2.42▲	4.10▲	2.38▲
11:54 +14’	2.41▼	4.13▲	2.37▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Leeds U21 0–1–2 Crystal Palace U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/09/25 England Premier League 2	Crystal Palace U21	3-2 HT 2-1	Leeds U21
30/08/24 England Premier League 2	Leeds U21	1-1 HT 1-0	Crystal Palace U21
03/11/23 England Premier League 2	Leeds U21	1-7 HT 0-3	Crystal Palace U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelsea U21	5	4	0	1	15	9	12
2	Nottm Forest U21	5	4	0	1	10	9	12
3	Tottenham U21	4	3	1	0	13	7	10
4	Liverpool U21	5	3	1	1	9	4	10
5	Southampton U21	4	3	1	0	7	2	10
6	Sunderland U21	5	3	1	1	15	11	10
7	Norwich U21	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
8	Man Utd U21	4	3	0	1	14	6	9
9	Bournemouth U21	4	3	0	1	8	6	9
10	Everton U21	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
11	Aston Villa U21	5	2	2	1	8	8	8
12	Fulham U21	4	2	1	1	12	9	7
13	Leeds U21	4	2	1	1	11	9	7
14	Reading U21	5	2	1	2	7	7	7
15	Brentford U21	4	2	0	2	10	8	6
16	West Ham U21	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
17	Stoke U21	5	1	1	3	8	7	4
18	Crystal Palace U21	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
19	Brighton U21	4	1	1	2	7	9	4
20	Derby U21	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
21	Arsenal U21	5	0	4	1	6	9	4
22	Man City U21	3	1	0	2	7	6	3
23	Burnley U21	5	1	0	4	8	10	3
24	Blackburn U21	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
25	Ipswich U21	3	1	0	2	6	10	3
26	Birmingham U21	3	0	2	1	5	7	2
27	Middlesbrough U21	5	0	2	3	8	12	2
28	West Brom U21	3	0	1	2	8	11	1
29	Leicester U21	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
30	Newcastle U21	3	0	0	3	1	9	0
31	Wolverhampton U21	3	0	0	3	0	10	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leeds U21	Crystal Palace U21
Liverpool U21	1-2 L	2-2 D
Man Utd U21	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leeds U21

LLWLLLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Newcastle U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
13/09	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	3-1	4-4	2	0	D
30/08	Liverpool U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-2	8	5	L
23/08	West Brom U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	4-3	6	3	W
13/04	Leicester U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
03/04	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
20/03	Southampton U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
16/03	Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
09/03	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	2-5	6	5	L
28/02	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-3	2	3	L

Crystal Palace U21

WDWLWDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	8	8	L
28/08	Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	2-0	3	1	W
22/08	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
04/05	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
26/04	Liverpool U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	2-2	5	5	D
13/04	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
03/04	Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
22/03	Liverpool U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	5-1	7	2	W
14/03	Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	8	2	D
06/03	Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leeds U21 vs Crystal Palace U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Crystal Palace U21 win (39%). Probabilities: Leeds U21 38%, draw 23%, Crystal Palace U21 39%.

How many goals are expected in Leeds U21 vs Crystal Palace U21?

The model expects 3.88 goals (Leeds U21 1.93 · Crystal Palace U21 1.95), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leeds U21 vs Crystal Palace U21?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.