Football · England Premier League 2 · 24/10, 18:00

Prediction: Leicester U21 vs Arsenal U21

Team pages: Leicester U21 · Arsenal U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Leicester U211.47

Arsenal U211.74

1X2

32% 24% 44%

Leicester U21 Draw Arsenal U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Leicester U21 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Arsenal U21 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Leicester U21 1–3 Arsenal U21 (4 last)

Arsenal U211-5Leicester U21
Arsenal U214-1Leicester U21
Arsenal U212-1Leicester U21
Leicester U211-2Arsenal U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leicester U21 1442 · Arsenal U21 1456

	Leicester U21	Draw	Arsenal U21
Our model	32%	25%	43%
Market	33%	22%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Arsenal U21: 3-0-1.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leicester U21	Arsenal U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.2	1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	3.3 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X4.00

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.52 ★
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.13

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:13 +19’	2.70	4.00	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:31 +48’	2.58	4.18	2.15
06:39 +55’	2.55▼	4.41▲	2.12▼
16:03 +17’	2.57▲	4.52▲	2.13▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Leicester U21 1–0–3 Arsenal U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 England Premier League 2	Arsenal U21	1-5 HT 1-3	Leicester U21
18/08/23 England Premier League 2	Arsenal U21	4-1 HT 1-1	Leicester U21
13/01/23 England Premier League 2	Arsenal U21	2-1 HT 0-1	Leicester U21
24/10/22 England Premier League 2	Leicester U21	1-2 HT 0-1	Arsenal U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tottenham U21	5	4	1	0	15	7	13
2	Chelsea U21	6	4	1	1	17	11	13
3	Nottm Forest U21	6	4	0	2	11	11	12
4	Liverpool U21	6	3	2	1	11	6	11
5	Southampton U21	4	3	1	0	7	2	10
6	Sunderland U21	5	3	1	1	15	11	10
7	Norwich U21	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
8	Fulham U21	6	3	1	2	16	14	10
9	Bournemouth U21	5	3	1	1	11	9	10
10	Reading U21	6	3	1	2	9	8	10
11	Man Utd U21	4	3	0	1	14	6	9
12	Everton U21	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
13	Brighton U21	6	2	2	2	14	14	8
14	West Ham U21	6	2	2	2	10	10	8
15	Aston Villa U21	5	2	2	1	8	8	8
16	Crystal Palace U21	4	2	1	1	7	3	7
17	Derby U21	5	2	1	2	13	12	7
18	Leeds U21	5	2	1	2	12	13	7
19	Man City U21	4	2	0	2	11	9	6
20	Brentford U21	5	2	0	3	11	10	6
20	Ipswich U21	4	2	0	2	11	10	6
22	Stoke U21	6	1	1	4	11	11	4
23	Leicester U21	5	1	1	3	5	10	4
24	Arsenal U21	6	0	4	2	7	13	4
25	Blackburn U21	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
26	Burnley U21	6	1	0	5	9	13	3
27	Wolverhampton U21	4	1	0	3	2	11	3
28	Middlesbrough U21	5	0	2	3	8	12	2
29	Birmingham U21	5	0	2	3	5	16	2
30	West Brom U21	4	0	1	3	9	13	1
31	Newcastle U21	3	0	0	3	1	9	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leicester U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
18/09	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
11/09	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
31/08	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	1-3	1-4	2	6	L
24/04	Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	12	4	L
13/04	Leeds U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	3-2	8	5	W
20/03	Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
13/03	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	3-1	5-1	6	4	W
09/03	Newcastle U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	2-2	7	2	D
23/02	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	1-4	4	4	L

Arsenal U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
18/09	Birmingham U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
12/09	Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	1-4	3	3	L
31/08	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	2-2	6	1	D
22/08	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
25/04	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-3	9	4	L
13/04	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
04/04	West Brom U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
23/03	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	0-3	1-3	3	2	L
13/03	Leicester U21 England Premier League 2	1-3	1-5	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leicester U21 vs Arsenal U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Arsenal U21 win (44%). Probabilities: Leicester U21 32%, draw 24%, Arsenal U21 44%.

How many goals are expected in Leicester U21 vs Arsenal U21?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Leicester U21 1.47 · Arsenal U21 1.74), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Leicester U21 vs Arsenal U21?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.