Football · England Premier League 2 · 26/10, 20:00

Prediction: Derby U21 vs Norwich U21

Team pages: Derby U21 · Norwich U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.14Total

Derby U212.11

Norwich U212.02

1X2

41% 22% 37%

Derby U21 Draw Norwich U21

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Derby U21 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWDLLW

Norwich U21 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWDWLW

Head-to-head

Derby U21 0–3 Norwich U21 (3 last)

Derby U210-3Norwich U21
Derby U210-3Norwich U21
Norwich U212-1Derby U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Derby U21 1487 · Norwich U21 1548

	Derby U21	Draw	Norwich U21
Our model	41%	22%	37%
Market	41%	22%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 4.14 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Norwich U21 (rating 1487 vs 1548).
H2H favours Norwich U21: 3-0-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Derby U21	Norwich U21
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.9	2.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	2.8 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X4.10

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.48 ★
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:09 +8’	2.20	4.10	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:22 +54’	2.48	3.98	2.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Derby U21 0–0–3 Norwich U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/10/25 England Premier League 2	Derby U21	0-3 HT 0-1	Norwich U21
13/02/23 England Premier League 2	Derby U21	0-3 HT 0-1	Norwich U21
30/09/22 England Premier League 2	Norwich U21	2-1 HT 1-0	Derby U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tottenham U21	5	4	1	0	15	7	13
2	Chelsea U21	6	4	1	1	17	11	13
3	Nottm Forest U21	6	4	0	2	11	11	12
4	Liverpool U21	6	3	2	1	11	6	11
5	Southampton U21	4	3	1	0	7	2	10
6	Sunderland U21	5	3	1	1	15	11	10
7	Norwich U21	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
8	Fulham U21	6	3	1	2	16	14	10
9	Bournemouth U21	5	3	1	1	11	9	10
10	Reading U21	6	3	1	2	9	8	10
11	Man Utd U21	4	3	0	1	14	6	9
12	Everton U21	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
13	Brighton U21	6	2	2	2	14	14	8
14	West Ham U21	6	2	2	2	10	10	8
15	Aston Villa U21	5	2	2	1	8	8	8
16	Crystal Palace U21	4	2	1	1	7	3	7
17	Derby U21	5	2	1	2	13	12	7
18	Leeds U21	5	2	1	2	12	13	7
19	Man City U21	4	2	0	2	11	9	6
20	Brentford U21	5	2	0	3	11	10	6
20	Ipswich U21	4	2	0	2	11	10	6
22	Stoke U21	6	1	1	4	11	11	4
23	Leicester U21	5	1	1	3	5	10	4
24	Arsenal U21	6	0	4	2	7	13	4
25	Blackburn U21	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
26	Burnley U21	6	1	0	5	9	13	3
27	Wolverhampton U21	4	1	0	3	2	11	3
28	Middlesbrough U21	5	0	2	3	8	12	2
29	Birmingham U21	5	0	2	3	5	16	2
30	West Brom U21	4	0	1	3	9	13	1
31	Newcastle U21	3	0	0	3	1	9	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Derby U21	Norwich U21
Birmingham U21	4-0 W	4-2 W
West Brom U21	4-4 D	4-1 W
Sunderland U21	2-1 W	1-3 L
Man City U21	1-0 W	0-3 L
Middlesbrough U21	1-0 W	1-0 W
West Ham U21	4-2 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Derby U21 (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derby U21

WWWWLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Birmingham U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	4-0	7	4	W
18/09	Burnley U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	1-4	10	5	L
11/09	Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	1-3	5	5	L
31/08	West Brom U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	4-4	7	6	D
24/08	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	3-1	4	2	W
13/04	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-4	7	6	L
06/04	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
03/04	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
20/03	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
06/03	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	4-2	1	2	W

Norwich U21

WDLWLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	2-2	4-2	8	2	W
18/09	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	1-3	2	4	L
11/09	Birmingham U21 England Premier League 2	4-0	4-2	5	3	W
28/08	Stoke U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	17	1	D
23/08	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
13/04	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
20/03	West Brom U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	4-1	4	4	W
13/03	Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
06/03	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	2-2	4	5	D
27/02	Stoke U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	4-2	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derby U21 vs Norwich U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Derby U21 win (41%). Probabilities: Derby U21 41%, draw 22%, Norwich U21 37%.

How many goals are expected in Derby U21 vs Norwich U21?

The model expects 4.14 goals (Derby U21 2.11 · Norwich U21 2.02), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Derby U21 vs Norwich U21?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.