Football · England Premier League 2 · 26/10, 20:00

Prediction: Newcastle U21 vs Sunderland U21

Team pages: Newcastle U21 · Sunderland U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.86Total

Newcastle U211.79

Sunderland U212.06

1X2

34% 22% 44%

Newcastle U21 Draw Sunderland U21

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Newcastle U21 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDWLWDLLL

Sunderland U21 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWLWWD

Head-to-head

Newcastle U21 1–3–1 Sunderland U21 (5 last)

Sunderland U211-1Newcastle U21
Newcastle U211-1Sunderland U21
Sunderland U212-3Newcastle U21
Sunderland U212-1Newcastle U21
Newcastle U211-1Sunderland U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newcastle U21 1481 · Sunderland U21 1495

	Newcastle U21	Draw	Sunderland U21
Our model	33%	23%	44%
Market	34%	22%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.86 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newcastle U21	Sunderland U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	2.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	1.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.9	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.63

X4.10

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.16 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:29 +6’	2.63	4.10	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:07 +9’	2.62	4.06	2.16

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newcastle U21 1–3–1 Sunderland U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/01/26 England Premier League 2	Sunderland U21	1-1 HT 0-0	Newcastle U21
19/08/24 England Premier League 2	Newcastle U21	1-1 HT 1-0	Sunderland U21
18/03/24 England Premier League 2	Sunderland U21	2-3 HT 1-2	Newcastle U21
30/01/23 England Premier League 2	Sunderland U21	2-1 HT 0-0	Newcastle U21
31/10/22 England Premier League 2	Newcastle U21	1-1 HT 1-0	Sunderland U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tottenham U21	5	4	1	0	15	7	13
2	Chelsea U21	6	4	1	1	17	11	13
3	Nottm Forest U21	6	4	0	2	11	11	12
4	Liverpool U21	6	3	2	1	11	6	11
5	Southampton U21	4	3	1	0	7	2	10
6	Sunderland U21	5	3	1	1	15	11	10
7	Norwich U21	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
8	Fulham U21	6	3	1	2	16	14	10
9	Bournemouth U21	5	3	1	1	11	9	10
10	Reading U21	6	3	1	2	9	8	10
11	Man Utd U21	4	3	0	1	14	6	9
12	Everton U21	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
13	Brighton U21	6	2	2	2	14	14	8
14	West Ham U21	6	2	2	2	10	10	8
15	Aston Villa U21	5	2	2	1	8	8	8
16	Crystal Palace U21	4	2	1	1	7	3	7
17	Derby U21	5	2	1	2	13	12	7
18	Leeds U21	5	2	1	2	12	13	7
19	Man City U21	4	2	0	2	11	9	6
20	Brentford U21	5	2	0	3	11	10	6
20	Ipswich U21	4	2	0	2	11	10	6
22	Stoke U21	6	1	1	4	11	11	4
23	Leicester U21	5	1	1	3	5	10	4
24	Arsenal U21	6	0	4	2	7	13	4
25	Blackburn U21	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
26	Burnley U21	6	1	0	5	9	13	3
27	Wolverhampton U21	4	1	0	3	2	11	3
28	Middlesbrough U21	5	0	2	3	8	12	2
29	Birmingham U21	5	0	2	3	5	16	2
30	West Brom U21	4	0	1	3	9	13	1
31	Newcastle U21	3	0	0	3	1	9	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newcastle U21	Sunderland U21
Man Utd U21	3-1 W	2-3 L
Nottm Forest U21	0-3 L	5-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newcastle U21

WDDWLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Leeds U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
31/08	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	0-4	8	6	L
24/08	Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-3	4	2	L
13/04	Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-1	13	3	D
10/04	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	3-1	1	4	W
20/03	Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	0-3	1	5	L
13/03	Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
09/03	Leicester U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-2	2	2	D
27/02	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-2	4	7	D
20/02	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	3-0	1	3	W

Sunderland U21

LWDLLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
18/09	Norwich U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	3-1	7	4	W
11/09	Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2	4-1	4-2	3	6	W
31/08	Brentford U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-5	4	4	L
24/08	Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	5-1	6	4	W
26/04	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	2-3	5	5	L
06/04	Derby U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-2	5	7	L
30/03	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
23/03	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	3-0	3-1	4	2	W
14/03	Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2	0-3	0-4	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newcastle U21 vs Sunderland U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sunderland U21 win (44%). Probabilities: Newcastle U21 34%, draw 22%, Sunderland U21 44%.

How many goals are expected in Newcastle U21 vs Sunderland U21?

The model expects 3.86 goals (Newcastle U21 1.79 · Sunderland U21 2.06), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newcastle U21 vs Sunderland U21?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.