Football · England Premier League 2 · 19/10, 20:00
Prediction: Birmingham U21 vs Derby U21
Team pages: Birmingham U21 · Derby U21
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.25Total
Birmingham U212.02
Derby U212.22
1X2
Birmingham U21
Draw
Derby U21
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
2-2 7%
Recent form · 10 last
Birmingham U21
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Derby U21
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Birmingham U21
1–0
Derby U21
(1 last)
- Derby U210-3Birmingham U21
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Birmingham U21 1444 · Derby U21 1462
| Birmingham U21 | Draw | Derby U21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 21% | 43% |
| Market | 35% | 22% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Birmingham U21 | Derby U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.6 | 2 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.5 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.5 | 2.1 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Birmingham U21 1–0–0 Derby U21
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/25 England Premier League 2 | Derby U21 | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Birmingham U21 |
Standings · England Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham U21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Chelsea U21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 9 | 12 |
| 3 | Nottm Forest U21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Liverpool U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Sunderland U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 10 |
| 7 | Fulham U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 10 |
| 8 | Norwich U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 9 | Bournemouth U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| 10 | Man Utd U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 9 |
| 11 | Everton U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Reading U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 15 | Leeds U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 7 |
| 16 | Brentford U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 6 |
| 17 | Brighton U21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 5 |
| 18 | West Ham U21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| 19 | Stoke U21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| 20 | Derby U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 4 |
| 21 | Arsenal U21 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 4 |
| 22 | Man City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 23 | Burnley U21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 3 |
| 24 | Blackburn U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 25 | Ipswich U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| 26 | Birmingham U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| 27 | Middlesbrough U21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 2 |
| 28 | West Brom U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 1 |
| 29 | Leicester U21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| 30 | Newcastle U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| 31 | Wolverhampton U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Birmingham U21 | Derby U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham U21 | 3-3 D | 1-3 L |
| Man City U21 | 1-5 L | 1-0 W |
| West Brom U21 | 0-4 L | 4-4 D |
| Middlesbrough U21 | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Birmingham U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 11/09 | Norwich U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-4 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 31/08 | Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 10/04 | Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | Everton U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 5 | D |
| 20/03 | Man City U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-3 | 1-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 13/03 | West Brom U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/03 | Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 06/03 | Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 02/03 | Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
Derby U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Burnley U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 1-4 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 11/09 | Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 31/08 | West Brom U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 4-4 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 24/08 | Reading U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 13/04 | Reading U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 06/04 | Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 03/04 | Man City U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 20/03 | Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/03 | West Ham U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 4-2 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 02/03 | West Brom U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Birmingham U21 vs Derby U21?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Derby U21 win (43%). Probabilities: Birmingham U21 35%, draw 22%, Derby U21 43%.
How many goals are expected in Birmingham U21 vs Derby U21?
The model expects 4.25 goals (Birmingham U21 2.02 · Derby U21 2.22), with a 56% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Birmingham U21 vs Derby U21?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.