Football · England Premier League 2 · 24/10, 15:00

Prediction: Chelsea U21 vs Liverpool U21

Team pages: Chelsea U21 · Liverpool U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.97Total

Chelsea U212.75

Liverpool U211.22

1X2

69% 17% 14%

Chelsea U21 Draw Liverpool U21

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Chelsea U21 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLWWWW

Liverpool U21 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLDDWLWW

Head-to-head

Chelsea U21 3–1–2 Liverpool U21 (6 last)

Liverpool U210-3Chelsea U21
Liverpool U212-1Chelsea U21
Chelsea U213-1Liverpool U21
Liverpool U210-0Chelsea U21
Chelsea U211-3Liverpool U21
Chelsea U214-1Liverpool U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chelsea U21 1562 · Liverpool U21 1508

	Chelsea U21	Draw	Liverpool U21
Our model	69%	17%	14%
Market	69%	17%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.97 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chelsea U21 (rating 1562 vs 1508).
H2H favours Chelsea U21: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chelsea U21	Liverpool U21
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.4	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.6	2.8 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.50

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.80

Under 42.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.33▼	Pinn 1.35
X	4.20 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50
2	3.10 → 6.50▲	Pinn 7.13 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:24 +12’	1.80	4.20	3.10
15:16 +1’	1.33▼	5.50▲	6.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:11 +52’	1.81	4.38	3.19
11:01 +25’	1.77▼	4.42▲	3.30▲
15:16	1.35▼	5.02▲	7.13▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chelsea U21 3–1–2 Liverpool U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/02/25 England Premier League 2	Liverpool U21	0-3 HT 0-0	Chelsea U21
17/12/23 England Premier League 2	Liverpool U21	2-1 HT 0-0	Chelsea U21
11/03/23 England Premier League 2	Chelsea U21	3-1 HT 2-1	Liverpool U21
19/02/23 England Premier League 2	Liverpool U21	0-0 HT 0-0	Chelsea U21
25/11/17 England Premier League 2	Chelsea U21	1-3	Liverpool U21
22/08/16 England Premier League 2	Chelsea U21	4-1	Liverpool U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tottenham U21	5	4	1	0	15	7	13
2	Chelsea U21	5	4	0	1	15	9	12
3	Nottm Forest U21	5	4	0	1	10	9	12
4	Liverpool U21	5	3	1	1	9	4	10
5	Southampton U21	4	3	1	0	7	2	10
6	Sunderland U21	5	3	1	1	15	11	10
7	Norwich U21	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
8	Fulham U21	6	3	1	2	16	14	10
9	Bournemouth U21	5	3	1	1	11	9	10
10	Man Utd U21	4	3	0	1	14	6	9
11	Everton U21	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
12	Brighton U21	6	2	2	2	14	14	8
13	West Ham U21	6	2	2	2	10	10	8
14	Aston Villa U21	5	2	2	1	8	8	8
15	Crystal Palace U21	4	2	1	1	7	3	7
16	Derby U21	5	2	1	2	13	12	7
17	Reading U21	5	2	1	2	7	7	7
18	Leeds U21	5	2	1	2	12	13	7
19	Man City U21	4	2	0	2	11	9	6
20	Brentford U21	5	2	0	3	11	10	6
20	Ipswich U21	4	2	0	2	11	10	6
22	Stoke U21	6	1	1	4	11	11	4
23	Arsenal U21	5	0	4	1	6	9	4
24	Blackburn U21	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
25	Burnley U21	6	1	0	5	9	13	3
26	Wolverhampton U21	4	1	0	3	2	11	3
27	Middlesbrough U21	5	0	2	3	8	12	2
28	Birmingham U21	5	0	2	3	5	16	2
29	West Brom U21	4	0	1	3	9	13	1
30	Leicester U21	4	0	1	3	1	9	1
31	Newcastle U21	3	0	0	3	1	9	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chelsea U21	Liverpool U21
West Ham U21	5-4 W	0-1 L
Tottenham U21	1-3 L	4-2 W
Wolverhampton U21	4-0 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Liverpool U21 (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chelsea U21

WWLWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Stoke U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
19/09	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	3-1	9	4	W
12/09	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	4-1	2	3	W
31/08	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	1-3	5-4	6	6	W
21/08	Bournemouth U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
01/05	Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-3	12	8	L
25/04	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
10/04	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
20/03	Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2	3-0	4-0	7	5	W
14/03	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	3-0	4-0	10	2	W

Liverpool U21

WWLLDDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
19/09	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	3-1	5-1	5	4	W
14/09	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
30/08	Leeds U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	2-1	5	5	W
21/08	Everton U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
26/04	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	2-2	10	5	D
22/03	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	1-5	6	2	L
16/03	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
08/03	Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2	5-0	5-0	11	1	W
01/03	Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	4-2	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chelsea U21 vs Liverpool U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chelsea U21 win (69%). Probabilities: Chelsea U21 69%, draw 17%, Liverpool U21 14%.

How many goals are expected in Chelsea U21 vs Liverpool U21?

The model expects 3.97 goals (Chelsea U21 2.75 · Liverpool U21 1.22), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Chelsea U21 vs Liverpool U21?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.