Football · England Premier League 2 · 23/10, 20:00
Prediction: Man City U21 vs Stoke U21
Team pages: Man City U21 · Stoke U21
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.37Total
Man City U213.06
Stoke U211.31
1X2
Man City U21
Draw
Stoke U21
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Man City U21
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Stoke U21
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Man City U21
1–1–1
Stoke U21
(3 last)
- Stoke U211-6Man City U21
- Man City U212-2Stoke U21
- Stoke U215-1Man City U21
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Man City U21 1538 · Stoke U21 1381
| Man City U21 | Draw | Stoke U21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 15% | 13% |
| Market | 72% | 16% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.37 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Man City U21 (rating 1538 vs 1381).
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Man City U21 | Stoke U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 5.1 / 8.2 | 1.4 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Man City U21 1–1–1 Stoke U21
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/26 England Premier League 2 | Stoke U21 | 1-6 HT 0-2 | Man City U21 |
| 17/01/25 England Premier League 2 | Man City U21 | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Stoke U21 |
| 15/01/24 England Premier League 2 | Stoke U21 | 5-1 HT 1-0 | Man City U21 |
Standings · England Premier League 2
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham U21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Chelsea U21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 9 | 12 |
| 3 | Nottm Forest U21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Liverpool U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Sunderland U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 10 |
| 7 | Fulham U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 10 |
| 8 | Norwich U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 9 | Bournemouth U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| 10 | Man Utd U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 9 |
| 11 | Everton U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Derby U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 7 |
| 15 | Reading U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 16 | Leeds U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 7 |
| 17 | Brentford U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 6 |
| 18 | Brighton U21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 5 |
| 19 | West Ham U21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| 20 | Stoke U21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| 21 | Arsenal U21 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 4 |
| 22 | Man City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 23 | Burnley U21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 3 |
| 24 | Blackburn U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 25 | Ipswich U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| 26 | Wolverhampton U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 3 |
| 27 | Middlesbrough U21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 2 |
| 28 | Birmingham U21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 2 |
| 29 | West Brom U21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 1 |
| 30 | Leicester U21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| 31 | Newcastle U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Man City U21 | Stoke U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton U21 | 4-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Aston Villa U21 | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Norwich U21 | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Man City U21 (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Man City U21
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-3 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 28/08 | Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 24/08 | Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2 |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-3 | 3-4 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 01/05 | Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 13/04 | Norwich U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 03/04 | Derby U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 21 | 4 | L |
| 20/03 | Birmingham U21 England Premier League 2 |
3-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 16/03 | Liverpool U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
Stoke U21
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 21/09 | Bournemouth U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 11/09 | Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 28/08 | Norwich U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 21/08 | Brentford U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 17/04 | Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 12/04 | Southampton U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 23/03 | Fulham U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 3-2 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 13/03 | Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/03 | Burnley U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Man City U21 vs Stoke U21?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Man City U21 win (72%). Probabilities: Man City U21 72%, draw 16%, Stoke U21 13%.
How many goals are expected in Man City U21 vs Stoke U21?
The model expects 4.37 goals (Man City U21 3.06 · Stoke U21 1.31), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Man City U21 vs Stoke U21?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.