Football · England Premier League 2 · 23/10, 13:00
Prediction: Ipswich U21 vs Birmingham U21
Team pages: Ipswich U21 · Birmingham U21
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.1Total
Ipswich U212.57
Birmingham U211.53
1X2
Ipswich U21
Draw
Birmingham U21
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
2-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Ipswich U21
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Birmingham U21
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ipswich U21
2–2–2
Birmingham U21
(6 last)
- Birmingham U210-3Ipswich U21
- Ipswich U216-1Birmingham U21
- Birmingham U214-2Ipswich U21
- Ipswich U210-0Birmingham U21
- Ipswich U211-2Birmingham U21
- Ipswich U211-1Birmingham U21
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ipswich U21 1460 · Birmingham U21 1415
| Ipswich U21 | Draw | Birmingham U21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 19% | 21% |
| Market | 60% | 19% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.1 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ipswich U21 (rating 1460 vs 1415).
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ipswich U21 | Birmingham U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2.4 | 0.9 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 0.4 / 1.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.5 | 2.9 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ipswich U21 2–2–2 Birmingham U21
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 England Premier League 2 | Birmingham U21 | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Ipswich U21 |
| 13/08/24 England Development League 2 | Ipswich U21 | 6-1 HT 5-0 | Birmingham U21 |
| 08/12/23 England U21 Premier League Cup | Birmingham U21 | 4-2 HT 2-0 | Ipswich U21 |
| 18/09/23 England U21 Premier League Cup | Ipswich U21 | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Birmingham U21 |
| 22/08/23 England Development League 2 | Ipswich U21 | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Birmingham U21 |
| 28/04/23 England Development League 2 | Ipswich U21 | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Birmingham U21 |
Standings · England Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham U21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Chelsea U21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 9 | 12 |
| 3 | Nottm Forest U21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Liverpool U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Sunderland U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 10 |
| 7 | Fulham U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 10 |
| 8 | Norwich U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 9 | Bournemouth U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| 10 | Man Utd U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 9 |
| 11 | Everton U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Derby U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 7 |
| 15 | Reading U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 16 | Leeds U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 7 |
| 17 | Brentford U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 6 |
| 18 | Brighton U21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 5 |
| 19 | West Ham U21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| 20 | Stoke U21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| 21 | Arsenal U21 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 4 |
| 22 | Man City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 23 | Burnley U21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 3 |
| 24 | Blackburn U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 25 | Ipswich U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| 26 | Wolverhampton U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 3 |
| 27 | Middlesbrough U21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 2 |
| 28 | Birmingham U21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 2 |
| 29 | West Brom U21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 1 |
| 30 | Leicester U21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| 31 | Newcastle U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ipswich U21 | Birmingham U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Man Utd U21 | 0-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Everton U21 | 4-8 L | 1-1 D |
| West Brom U21 | 0-3 L | 0-4 L |
| Arsenal U21 | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 3 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ipswich U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-4 | 2-4 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 28/08 | Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 24/08 | Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-4 | 0-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Brighton U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | Everton U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-3 | 4-8 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 10/04 | Birmingham U21 England Premier League 2 |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/03 | Burnley U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 06/03 | West Brom U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 27/02 | Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 13/02 | Stoke U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
Birmingham U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Derby U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/09 | Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 11/09 | Norwich U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-4 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 31/08 | Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 10/04 | Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | Everton U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 5 | D |
| 20/03 | Man City U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-3 | 1-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 13/03 | West Brom U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/03 | Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 06/03 | Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ipswich U21 vs Birmingham U21?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ipswich U21 win (60%). Probabilities: Ipswich U21 60%, draw 19%, Birmingham U21 21%.
How many goals are expected in Ipswich U21 vs Birmingham U21?
The model expects 4.1 goals (Ipswich U21 2.57 · Birmingham U21 1.53), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Ipswich U21 vs Birmingham U21?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.