Football · Italy Serie D · 01/11, 14:30

Prediction: U.S. Ancona vs ASD Atletico Ascoli

Team pages: U.S. Ancona · ASD Atletico Ascoli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

U.S. Ancona1.63

ASD Atletico Ascoli0.9

1X2

54% 27% 20%

U.S. Ancona Draw ASD Atletico Ascoli

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

U.S. Ancona 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWDDWWLW

ASD Atletico Ascoli 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDWLLWWD

Head-to-head

U.S. Ancona 4–1 ASD Atletico Ascoli (5 last)

U.S. Ancona2-1ASD Atletico Ascoli
U.S. Ancona1-0ASD Atletico Ascoli
ASD Atletico Ascoli1-2U.S. Ancona
U.S. Ancona0-2ASD Atletico Ascoli
ASD Atletico Ascoli1-2U.S. Ancona

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · U.S. Ancona 1549 · ASD Atletico Ascoli 1506

	U.S. Ancona	Draw	ASD Atletico Ascoli
Our model	53%	27%	20%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours U.S. Ancona (rating 1549 vs 1506).
H2H favours U.S. Ancona: 4-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	U.S. Ancona	ASD Atletico Ascoli
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/33/17%	67/17/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.3	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 1	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.40

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:18 +29’	1.67	3.40	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · U.S. Ancona 4–0–1 ASD Atletico Ascoli

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Italy Serie D	U.S. Ancona	2-1 HT 2-0	ASD Atletico Ascoli
22/10/25 Italy Serie D Cup	U.S. Ancona	1-0 HT 0-0	ASD Atletico Ascoli
21/09/25 Italy Serie D	ASD Atletico Ascoli	1-2 HT 0-1	U.S. Ancona
30/03/25 Italy Serie D	U.S. Ancona	0-2	ASD Atletico Ascoli
17/11/24 Italy Serie D	ASD Atletico Ascoli	1-2	U.S. Ancona

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	9	6	2	1	20	5	20
2	Sambiase	9	6	2	1	13	6	20
3	Vibonese	9	5	3	1	20	8	18
4	ASD Licata	9	5	2	2	12	14	17
5	Calcio Avola 1949	9	5	1	3	12	12	16
6	Milazzo	9	5	1	3	10	10	16
7	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	9	4	3	2	15	8	15
8	Igea Virtus	9	4	3	2	21	17	15
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	8	3	2	3	11	10	11
10	Città di Gela	9	2	4	3	10	8	9
11	Nissa FC	9	2	3	4	11	13	9
12	Siracusa	9	4	3	2	13	8	8
13	Vigor Lamezia	9	2	2	5	10	17	8
14	ASD CastrumFavara	9	2	2	5	10	12	8
15	Modica	8	2	1	5	7	11	7
16	Trapani	9	3	1	5	5	12	5
17	ASD Ragusa	9	0	3	6	7	16	3
18	Enna Calcio	9	0	2	7	2	22	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	U.S. Ancona	ASD Atletico Ascoli
Vigor Senigallia	5-0 W	2-1 W
FC Forsempronese	2-3 L	0-1 L
Giulianova Calcio 1924	2-0 W	2-4 L
ASD Sporting Trestina	2-0 W	1-0 W
L'Aquila	2-2 D	0-0 D
Maceratese	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: U.S. Ancona (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

U.S. Ancona

DWLWDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Vigor Senigallia Italy Serie D	3-0	5-0	4	8	W
18/10	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
11/10	Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
04/10	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
27/09	ASD Angelana 1930 Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	1-0	2-2	7	5	D
16/09	Maceratese Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	5	11	W
12/09	ASD K-Sport Montecchio Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
06/09	Notaresco Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
03/05	Notaresco Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D

ASD Atletico Ascoli

DLWDWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Termoli Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
18/10	Lanciano Italy Serie D	2-1	5-1	4	2	W
11/10	Vigor Senigallia Italy Serie D	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
04/10	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	1-1	2-4	4	6	L
20/09	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
16/09	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Maceratese Italy Serie D	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
06/09	Angelana 1930 Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/05	Teramo Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in U.S. Ancona vs ASD Atletico Ascoli?

According to our model, the most likely result is a U.S. Ancona win (54%). Probabilities: U.S. Ancona 54%, draw 27%, ASD Atletico Ascoli 20%.

How many goals are expected in U.S. Ancona vs ASD Atletico Ascoli?

The model expects 2.52 goals (U.S. Ancona 1.63 · ASD Atletico Ascoli 0.9), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in U.S. Ancona vs ASD Atletico Ascoli?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.