Football · Italy Serie D · 06/09, 15:00
Prediction: Notaresco Calcio 1924 vs U.S. Ancona
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Notaresco Calcio 19241.2
U.S. Ancona1.1
1X2
Notaresco Calcio 1924
Draw
U.S. Ancona
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Notaresco Calcio 1924
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
U.S. Ancona
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Notaresco Calcio 1924
1–3–2
U.S. Ancona
(6 last)
- U.S. Ancona1-1Notaresco Calcio 1924
- U.S. Ancona1-1Notaresco Calcio 1924
- Notaresco Calcio 19241-1U.S. Ancona
- U.S. Ancona3-1Notaresco Calcio 1924
- Notaresco Calcio 19240-1U.S. Ancona
- U.S. Ancona1-2Notaresco Calcio 1924
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Notaresco Calcio 1924 1493 · U.S. Ancona 1560
| Notaresco Calcio 1924 | Draw | U.S. Ancona | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Market | 37% | 30% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours U.S. Ancona (rating 1493 vs 1560).
- H2H favours U.S. Ancona: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Notaresco Calcio 1924 | U.S. Ancona | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.1 | 1.5 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 1.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 43/14/43% | 80/0/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4 | 3.6 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.3 | 6.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Notaresco Calcio 1924 1–3–2 U.S. Ancona
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Italy Serie D Play-Offs | U.S. Ancona | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Notaresco Calcio 1924 |
| 03/05/26 Italy Serie D | U.S. Ancona | 1-1 | Notaresco Calcio 1924 |
| 21/12/25 Italy Serie D | Notaresco Calcio 1924 | 1-1 HT 1-1 | U.S. Ancona |
| 13/04/25 Italy Serie D | U.S. Ancona | 3-1 | Notaresco Calcio 1924 |
| 01/12/24 Italy Serie D | Notaresco Calcio 1924 | 0-1 HT 0-1 | U.S. Ancona |
| 10/11/19 Italy Serie D | U.S. Ancona | 1-2 | Notaresco Calcio 1924 |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sambiase | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD CastrumFavara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD Polisportiva Modica Calcio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD Ragusa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Enna Calcio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Igea Virtus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD Licata | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Reggina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Milazzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nissa FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vibonese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vigor Lamezia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Città di Gela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| 17 | Trapani | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 |
| 18 | Siracusa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Notaresco Calcio 1924 | U.S. Ancona |
|---|---|---|
| Teramo | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| L'Aquila | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Sammaurese | 4-0 W | 3-0 W |
| ASD Sora Calcio 1907 | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| FC Forsempronese | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Notaresco Calcio 1924 (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Notaresco Calcio 1924
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | Teramo Italy Serie D |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | San Marino Calcio Italy Serie D |
1-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | Termoli Italy Serie D |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 02/04 | L'Aquila Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 29/03 | Teramo Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/03 | Sammaurese Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 15/03 | ASD Sora Calcio 1907 Italy Serie D |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/03 | FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
U.S. Ancona
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05 | Notaresco Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | L'Aquila Italy Serie D |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 19/04 | Sammaurese Italy Serie D |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 02/04 | Teramo Italy Serie D |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 29/03 | Vigor Senigallia Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 22/03 | ASD Sora Calcio 1907 Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 15/03 | Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/03 | Maceratese Italy Serie D |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 22/02 | Unipomezia Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Notaresco Calcio 1924 vs U.S. Ancona?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Notaresco Calcio 1924 win (37%). Probabilities: Notaresco Calcio 1924 37%, draw 30%, U.S. Ancona 32%.
How many goals are expected in Notaresco Calcio 1924 vs U.S. Ancona?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Notaresco Calcio 1924 1.2 · U.S. Ancona 1.1), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Notaresco Calcio 1924 vs U.S. Ancona?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.