Football · Italy Serie D · 27/09, 15:00

Prediction: Vigor Senigallia vs FC Forsempronese

Team pages: Vigor Senigallia · FC Forsempronese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Vigor Senigallia1.73

FC Forsempronese1.28

1X2

46% 27% 27%

Vigor Senigallia Draw FC Forsempronese

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Vigor Senigallia 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWLDWWWW

FC Forsempronese 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLWLWL

Head-to-head

Vigor Senigallia 1–5–0 FC Forsempronese (6 last)

Vigor Senigallia0-0FC Forsempronese
FC Forsempronese1-2Vigor Senigallia
FC Forsempronese0-0Vigor Senigallia
Vigor Senigallia2-2FC Forsempronese
FC Forsempronese2-2Vigor Senigallia
Vigor Senigallia1-1FC Forsempronese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vigor Senigallia 1536 · FC Forsempronese 1456

	Vigor Senigallia	Draw	FC Forsempronese
Our model	47%	26%	27%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vigor Senigallia (rating 1536 vs 1456).
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vigor Senigallia	FC Forsempronese
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.25

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:39 +16’	1.95	3.25	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vigor Senigallia 1–5–0 FC Forsempronese

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Italy Serie D	Vigor Senigallia	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Forsempronese
05/10/25 Italy Serie D	FC Forsempronese	1-2	Vigor Senigallia
31/08/25 Italy Serie D Cup	FC Forsempronese	0-0 HT 0-0	Vigor Senigallia
27/04/25 Italy Serie D	Vigor Senigallia	2-2 HT 0-1	FC Forsempronese
15/12/24 Italy Serie D	FC Forsempronese	2-2	Vigor Senigallia
07/04/24 Italy Serie D	Vigor Senigallia	1-1	FC Forsempronese

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	4	4	0	0	13	0	12
2	Igea Virtus	4	3	1	0	13	8	10
3	Sambiase	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
4	Vibonese	4	2	1	1	11	5	7
5	Nissa FC	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	4	1	3	0	7	2	6
7	Milazzo	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
8	Calcio Avola 1949	4	2	0	2	7	10	6
9	ASD Licata	4	1	2	1	3	7	5
10	Modica	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
12	ASD CastrumFavara	4	1	1	2	5	4	4
13	Città di Gela	4	1	1	2	4	5	3
14	ASD Ragusa	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
15	Vigor Lamezia	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
16	Siracusa	4	2	2	0	7	4	1
17	Enna Calcio	4	0	1	3	0	9	1
18	Trapani	4	0	0	4	1	10	-5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vigor Senigallia	FC Forsempronese
Lanciano	2-1 W	2-4 L
Giulianova Calcio 1924	1-0 W	2-1 W
ASD Sporting Trestina	5-2 W	1-0 W
Castelfidardo	3-1 W	3-1 W
ASD Atletico Ascoli	2-2 D	1-1 D
Recanatese	1-2 L	0-2 L
U.S. Ancona	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Vigor Senigallia (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vigor Senigallia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Termoli Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
16/09	Lanciano Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
13/09	Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
06/09	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	2-2	5-2	6	4	W
03/05	Unipomezia Italy Serie D	–	3-3	–	–	D
26/04	Chieti Italy Serie D	–	2-3	–	–	L
19/04	Castelfidardo Italy Serie D	–	3-1	–	–	W
12/04	ASD Atletico Ascoli Italy Serie D	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
02/04	Recanatese Italy Serie D	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
29/03	U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	4	10	L

FC Forsempronese

WLLDWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Lanciano Italy Serie D	–	2-4	–	–	L
16/09	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
12/09	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	0-1	0-4	8	5	L
06/09	Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
03/05	Recanatese Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/04	Castelfidardo Italy Serie D	–	3-1	–	–	W
19/04	ASD Atletico Ascoli Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/04	U.S. Ancona Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
02/04	San Marino Calcio Italy Serie D	0-1	0-3	7	6	L
29/03	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vigor Senigallia vs FC Forsempronese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vigor Senigallia win (46%). Probabilities: Vigor Senigallia 46%, draw 27%, FC Forsempronese 27%.

How many goals are expected in Vigor Senigallia vs FC Forsempronese?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Vigor Senigallia 1.73 · FC Forsempronese 1.28), with a 59% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vigor Senigallia vs FC Forsempronese?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.