Football · Italy Serie D · 06/09, 15:00
Prediction: Pavia vs A.C. Crema 1908
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.97Total
Pavia1.13
A.C. Crema 19080.84
1X2
Pavia
Draw
A.C. Crema 1908
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Pavia
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
A.C. Crema 1908
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pavia
0–2–1
A.C. Crema 1908
(3 last)
- A.C. Crema 19080-0Pavia
- Pavia1-1A.C. Crema 1908
- A.C. Crema 19083-2Pavia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pavia 1512 · A.C. Crema 1908 1455
| Pavia | Draw | A.C. Crema 1908 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 33% | 26% |
| Market | 43% | 29% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavia (rating 1512 vs 1455).
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pavia | A.C. Crema 1908 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 57/29/14% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.6 | 0.5 / 2.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 2.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pavia 0–2–1 A.C. Crema 1908
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/26 Italy Serie D Cup | A.C. Crema 1908 | 0-0 | Pavia |
| 10/02/19 Italy Serie D | Pavia | 1-1 | A.C. Crema 1908 |
| 21/10/18 Italy Serie D | A.C. Crema 1908 | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Pavia |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sambiase | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD CastrumFavara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD Polisportiva Modica Calcio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD Ragusa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Enna Calcio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Igea Virtus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD Licata | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Reggina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Milazzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nissa FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vibonese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vigor Lamezia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Città di Gela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| 17 | Trapani | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 |
| 18 | Siracusa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pavia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05 | AC Chievo Verona Italy Serie D |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | USD Casatese Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 12/04 | Scanzorosciate Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/04 | AC Leon Monza Brianza Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 28/03 | AVC Vogherese 1919 Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | USD Castellanzese Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 15/03 | ASD Villa D'Alme Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 01/03 | ASD Varesina Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 22/02 | Sondrio Italy Serie D |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
A.C. Crema 1908
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05 | Piacenza Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Correggese Italy Serie D |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 19/04 | Pro Palazzo Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 12/04 | Sangiuliano City FC Italy Serie D |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/04 | Pistoiese Italy Serie D |
2-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 29/03 | Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 21/03 | Imolese Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/03 | Cittadella Vis Modena Italy Serie D |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 01/03 | Desenzano Italy Serie D |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 22/02 | ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pavia vs A.C. Crema 1908?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pavia win (42%). Probabilities: Pavia 42%, draw 31%, A.C. Crema 1908 27%.
How many goals are expected in Pavia vs A.C. Crema 1908?
The model expects 1.97 goals (Pavia 1.13 · A.C. Crema 1908 0.84), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Pavia vs A.C. Crema 1908?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.