Football · Italy Serie D · 06/09, 15:00
Prediction: Tropical Coriano vs Citta di Varese
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.35Total
Tropical Coriano1.01
Citta di Varese1.34
1X2
Tropical Coriano
Draw
Citta di Varese
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Tropical Coriano
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Citta di Varese
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tropical Coriano 1511 · Citta di Varese 1558
| Tropical Coriano | Draw | Citta di Varese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 30% | 43% |
| Market | 28% | 28% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Citta di Varese (rating 1511 vs 1558).
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tropical Coriano | Citta di Varese | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 29/43/29% | 17/33/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 2.7 | 3.2 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0 |
Standings · Italy Serie D
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sambiase | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD CastrumFavara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD Polisportiva Modica Calcio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD Ragusa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Enna Calcio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Igea Virtus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ASD Licata | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Reggina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Milazzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nissa FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vibonese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vigor Lamezia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Città di Gela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| 17 | Trapani | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 |
| 18 | Siracusa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tropical Coriano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05 | Pro Palazzo Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | Piacenza Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | Pistoiese Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Imolese Italy Serie D |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 08/04 | Desenzano Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 02/04 | Sangiuliano City FC Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 3-3 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 22/03 | Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 15/03 | ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 01/03 | Cittadella Vis Modena Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 22/02 | Pro Sesto Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
Citta di Varese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | Ligorna Italy Serie D |
0-3 | 3-5 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Lavagnese Italy Serie D |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | ACSD Saluzzo Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | Derthona Italy Serie D |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | Celle Varazze FBC Italy Serie D |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 02/04 | Valenzana Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 29/03 | Sanremese Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 22/03 | ASDC Gozzano Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 15/03 | Asti Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/03 | FC Vado Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tropical Coriano vs Citta di Varese?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Citta di Varese win (43%). Probabilities: Tropical Coriano 28%, draw 29%, Citta di Varese 43%.
How many goals are expected in Tropical Coriano vs Citta di Varese?
The model expects 2.35 goals (Tropical Coriano 1.01 · Citta di Varese 1.34), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Tropical Coriano vs Citta di Varese?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.