Football · Italy Serie D · 27/09, 15:00

Prediction: Cittadella Vis Modena vs Correggese

Team pages: Cittadella Vis Modena · Correggese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Cittadella Vis Modena1.49

Correggese0.81

1X2

53% 27% 20%

Cittadella Vis Modena Draw Correggese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Cittadella Vis Modena 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLLWDW

Correggese 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDDDWDWL

Head-to-head

Cittadella Vis Modena 2–1–0 Correggese (3 last)

Cittadella Vis Modena2-0Correggese
Correggese1-2Cittadella Vis Modena
Cittadella Vis Modena1-1Correggese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cittadella Vis Modena 1525 · Correggese 1509

	Cittadella Vis Modena	Draw	Correggese
Our model	52%	29%	19%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cittadella Vis Modena: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cittadella Vis Modena	Correggese
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/33/17%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	2.7 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.40

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.67▲	Bet365 1.67
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.50 → 4.33▼	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:39 +15’	1.65	3.40	4.50
19:22 +3’	1.67▲	3.40	4.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cittadella Vis Modena 2–1–0 Correggese

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/01/26 Italy Serie D	Cittadella Vis Modena	2-0 HT 2-0	Correggese
07/09/25 Italy Serie D	Correggese	1-2 HT 1-1	Cittadella Vis Modena
31/08/25 Italy Serie D Cup	Cittadella Vis Modena	1-1 HT 1-0	Correggese

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	4	4	0	0	13	0	12
2	Igea Virtus	4	3	1	0	13	8	10
3	Sambiase	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
4	Vibonese	4	2	1	1	11	5	7
5	Nissa FC	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	4	1	3	0	7	2	6
7	Milazzo	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
8	Calcio Avola 1949	4	2	0	2	7	10	6
9	ASD Licata	4	1	2	1	3	7	5
10	Modica	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
12	ASD CastrumFavara	4	1	1	2	5	4	4
13	Città di Gela	4	1	1	2	4	5	3
14	ASD Ragusa	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
15	Vigor Lamezia	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
16	Siracusa	4	2	2	0	7	4	1
17	Enna Calcio	4	0	1	3	0	9	1
18	Trapani	4	0	0	4	1	10	-5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cittadella Vis Modena	Correggese
Lentigione	1-0 W	1-1 D
ASD Varesina	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cittadella Vis Modena

WLDWWLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Lentigione Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
16/09	Citta di Varese Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
12/09	Tropical Coriano Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
06/09	ASD Varesina Italy Serie D	–	2-3	–	–	L
03/05	Pistoiese Italy Serie D	–	0-5	–	–	L
26/04	Pro Palazzo Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
19/04	Sangiuliano City FC Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/04	Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
02/04	Imolese Italy Serie D	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
29/03	ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D	2-0	2-0	7	5	W

Correggese

DWWDDDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	USD Casatese Italy Serie D	0-0	1-3	2	4	L
16/09	ASD Varesina Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	10	4	W
12/09	Arconatese Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/05	Pro Sesto Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/04	A.C. Crema 1908 Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/04	CS Trevigliese Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
12/04	SCD Progresso Calcio Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
02/04	A.C.D. Sant'Angelo Italy Serie D	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
29/03	Tuttocuoio Italy Serie D	–	6-0	–	–	W
22/03	Lentigione Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cittadella Vis Modena vs Correggese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cittadella Vis Modena win (53%). Probabilities: Cittadella Vis Modena 53%, draw 27%, Correggese 20%.

How many goals are expected in Cittadella Vis Modena vs Correggese?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Cittadella Vis Modena 1.49 · Correggese 0.81), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cittadella Vis Modena vs Correggese?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.