Football · Italy Serie D · 06/09, 15:00

Prediction: AC Milan U23 vs ASD Caldiero Terme

Team pages: AC Milan U23 · ASD Caldiero Terme

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

AC Milan U231.66

ASD Caldiero Terme1.34

1X2

43% 27% 29%

AC Milan U23 Draw ASD Caldiero Terme

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Milan U23 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDDLWLWW

ASD Caldiero Terme 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWLLDDWD

Head-to-head

AC Milan U23 1–2 ASD Caldiero Terme (3 last)

ASD Caldiero Terme0-3AC Milan U23
AC Milan U230-2ASD Caldiero Terme
AC Milan U230-2ASD Caldiero Terme

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Milan U23 1519 · ASD Caldiero Terme 1513

	AC Milan U23	Draw	ASD Caldiero Terme
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours ASD Caldiero Terme: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Milan U23	ASD Caldiero Terme
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.8	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/71/14%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 7	1.7 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.21
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.49 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:45 +9’	2.10	3.20	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:15 +70’	1.93	3.17	3.44
14:31 +7’	1.94▲	3.21▲	3.49▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Milan U23 1–0–2 ASD Caldiero Terme

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Italy Serie D	ASD Caldiero Terme	0-3	AC Milan U23
19/10/25 Italy Serie D	AC Milan U23	0-2	ASD Caldiero Terme
18/12/24 Italy Serie C Cup	AC Milan U23	0-2 HT 0-2	ASD Caldiero Terme

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sambiase	1	1	0	2	1	3
2	ASD CastrumFavara	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	ASD Polisportiva Modica Calcio	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	ASD Ragusa	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Calcio Avola 1949	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Enna Calcio	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Igea Virtus	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	ASD Licata	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Reggina	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Milazzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nissa FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Vibonese	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Vigor Lamezia	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Città di Gela	1	0	1	1	2	-1
17	Trapani	0	0	0	0	0	-5
18	Siracusa	0	0	0	0	0	-7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Milan U23	ASD Caldiero Terme
AVC Vogherese 1919	10-1 W	6-0 W
ASD Varesina	0-1 L	2-2 D
ASD Brusaporto	4-0 W	1-2 L
Real Calepina FC	0-1 L	3-1 W
ASD Villa D'Alme	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sondrio	2-2 D	1-1 D
Oltrepò	1-0 W	2-4 L
US Folgore Caratese	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: AC Milan U23 (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Milan U23

WDWDDLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/05	AVC Vogherese 1919 Italy Serie D	5-0	10-1	12	2	W
26/04	USD Castellanzese Italy Serie D	1-1	3-1	5	4	W
19/04	ASD Varesina Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
12/04	ASD Brusaporto Italy Serie D	–	4-0	–	–	W
08/04	Real Calepina FC Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
02/04	ASD Villa D'Alme Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
22/03	Sondrio Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/03	Oltrepò Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
01/03	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
22/02	ASD Caldiero Terme Italy Serie D	–	3-0	–	–	W

ASD Caldiero Terme

LLDWLLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/05	ASD Varesina Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
26/04	AVC Vogherese 1919 Italy Serie D	–	6-0	–	–	W
19/04	ASD Villa D'Alme Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
12/04	Sondrio Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
02/04	ASD Brusaporto Italy Serie D	0-1	1-2	7	5	L
29/03	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie D	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/03	Real Calepina FC Italy Serie D	1-0	3-1	2	5	W
15/03	US Breno Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
01/03	Oltrepò Italy Serie D	–	2-4	–	–	L
22/02	AC Milan U23 Italy Serie D	–	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Milan U23 vs ASD Caldiero Terme?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Milan U23 win (43%). Probabilities: AC Milan U23 43%, draw 27%, ASD Caldiero Terme 29%.

How many goals are expected in AC Milan U23 vs ASD Caldiero Terme?

The model expects 3.01 goals (AC Milan U23 1.66 · ASD Caldiero Terme 1.34), with a 59% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Milan U23 vs ASD Caldiero Terme?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.