Football · Italy Serie D · 12/09, 16:00
Prediction: ASD Villa D'Alme vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.24Total
ASD Villa D'Alme1.25
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo0.99
1X2
ASD Villa D'Alme
Draw
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
ASD Villa D'Alme
0-6-4 (W-D-L)
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
ASD Villa D'Alme
0–3–3
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
(6 last)
- ASD Villa D'Alme1-1Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
- ASD Villa D'Alme1-1Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
- Virtus Ciserano Bergamo1-0ASD Villa D'Alme
- ASD Villa D'Alme0-1Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
- Virtus Ciserano Bergamo3-3ASD Villa D'Alme
- ASD Villa D'Alme0-2Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · ASD Villa D'Alme 1460 · Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1499
| ASD Villa D'Alme | Draw | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Market | 42% | 29% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Virtus Ciserano Bergamo: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| ASD Villa D'Alme | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 1.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/86/14% | 50/33/17% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.7 | 1.8 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD Villa D'Alme 0–3–3 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Italy Serie D | ASD Villa D'Alme | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo |
| 12/04/26 Italy Serie D | ASD Villa D'Alme | 1-1 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo |
| 30/11/25 Italy Serie D | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 1-0 | ASD Villa D'Alme |
| 31/08/25 Italy Serie D Cup | ASD Villa D'Alme | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo |
| 25/01/25 Italy Serie D | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 3-3 | ASD Villa D'Alme |
| 28/09/24 Italy Serie D | ASD Villa D'Alme | 0-2 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Reggina | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | ASD CastrumFavara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Igea Virtus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Nissa FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sambiase | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | ASD Polisportiva Modica Calcio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | ASD Ragusa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 | Vigor Lamezia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Milazzo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | Enna Calcio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 | ASD Licata | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 | Città di Gela | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| 17 | Siracusa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 |
| 18 | Trapani | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -5 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
ASD Villa D'Alme
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Virtus Verona Italy Serie D |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | US Breno Italy Serie D |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Oltrepò Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | ASD Caldiero Terme Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 12/04 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 12/04 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 02/04 | AC Milan U23 Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 29/03 | USD Casatese Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 21/03 | AC Chievo Verona Italy Serie D |
0-3 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 15/03 | Pavia Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | USD Castellanzese Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Pavia Italy Serie D |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 19/04 | AVC Vogherese 1919 Italy Serie D |
3-0 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | ASD Villa D'Alme Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 12/04 | ASD Villa D'Alme Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 29/03 | Sondrio Italy Serie D |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 22/03 | ASD Brusaporto Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 15/03 | US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 01/03 | Real Calepina FC Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in ASD Villa D'Alme vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a ASD Villa D'Alme win (41%). Probabilities: ASD Villa D'Alme 41%, draw 30%, Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 29%.
How many goals are expected in ASD Villa D'Alme vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo?
The model expects 2.24 goals (ASD Villa D'Alme 1.25 · Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 0.99), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in ASD Villa D'Alme vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.