Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 16/08, 17:00

Prediction: FK Sumqayit vs Neftchi Baku

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

FK Sumqayit1.01

Neftchi Baku1.97

1X2

17% 24% 58%

FK Sumqayit Draw Neftchi Baku

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Sumqayit 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWLWLL

Neftchi Baku 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWLLW

Head-to-head

FK Sumqayit 1–2–3 Neftchi Baku (6 last)

FK Sumqayit1-3Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku2-2FK Sumqayit
FK Sumqayit0-2Neftchi Baku
FK Sumqayit2-2Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku1-0FK Sumqayit
FK Sumqayit2-0Neftchi Baku

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Sumqayit 1446 · Neftchi Baku 1560

	FK Sumqayit	Draw	Neftchi Baku
Our model	18%	23%	59%
Market	17%	25%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Baku (rating 1446 vs 1560).
H2H favours Neftchi Baku: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Sumqayit	Neftchi Baku
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.1	2.9 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	3.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

15.25

X3.60

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 19:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.44 ★
2	1.73 → 1.80▲	Pinn 1.82

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
03:52 +9’	4.20	3.40	1.73
10:12 +11’	5.25▲	3.60▲	1.55▼
19:47 +7’	4.00▼	3.30▼	1.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:59 +2’	5.58	3.81	1.54
19:53 +1’	3.86▼	3.44▼	1.82▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Sumqayit 1–2–3 Neftchi Baku

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Sumqayit	1-3 HT 0-1	Neftchi Baku
15/12/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Neftchi Baku	2-2 HT 1-0	FK Sumqayit
21/09/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Sumqayit	0-2 HT 0-0	Neftchi Baku
28/04/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Sumqayit	2-2 HT 1-0	Neftchi Baku
21/02/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Neftchi Baku	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Sumqayit
08/12/24 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Sumqayit	2-0 HT 2-0	Neftchi Baku

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PFK Turan Tovuz	1	1	0	1	0	3
2	Araz FK	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	FK Kapaz	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Imisli	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Neftchi Baku	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	FK Qarabag	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Sabah	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Safa Baku	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Shamakhi FK	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	FK Sumqayit	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Zira IK	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	FK Gabala	1	0	1	0	1	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Sumqayit	Neftchi Baku
FK Kapaz	1-2 L	1-0 W
Sabah	1-3 L	2-1 W
Shamakhi FK	0-1 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Neftchi Baku (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Sumqayit

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/05	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-2	3-4	6	4	L
17/05	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
09/05	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
02/05	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
25/04	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
19/04	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
12/04	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	1-2	7	5	L
05/04	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	1-3	7	1	L
19/03	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	1-3	4	1	L
13/03	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	8	5	L

Neftchi Baku

WWWWLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Dinamo Minsk UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
22/07	Dinamo Minsk UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-1	2-4	5	2	L
13/07	NK Osijek Club Friendly List	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
10/07	Radnicki Nis Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-0	2	4	W
06/07	Partizan Belgrade Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
02/07	CFR Cluj Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
23/05	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
17/05	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
10/05	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
05/05	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-0	10	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Sumqayit vs Neftchi Baku?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Neftchi Baku win (58%). Probabilities: FK Sumqayit 17%, draw 24%, Neftchi Baku 58%.

How many goals are expected in FK Sumqayit vs Neftchi Baku?

The model expects 2.98 goals (FK Sumqayit 1.01 · Neftchi Baku 1.97), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Sumqayit vs Neftchi Baku?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.