Football · Venezuela Cup · 19/08, 21:30

Prediction: Atletico El Vigia vs Real Frontera

Team pages: Atletico El Vigia · Real Frontera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Atletico El Vigia1.65

Real Frontera1.18

1X2

47% 27% 26%

Atletico El Vigia Draw Real Frontera

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico El Vigia 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDWWDW

Real Frontera 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Atletico El Vigia 3–3 Real Frontera (6 last)

Real Frontera1-3Atletico El Vigia
Atletico El Vigia0-1Real Frontera
Real Frontera3-1Atletico El Vigia
Atletico El Vigia1-2Real Frontera
Real Frontera0-1Atletico El Vigia
Real Frontera0-1Atletico El Vigia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico El Vigia 1479 · Real Frontera 1392

	Atletico El Vigia	Draw	Real Frontera
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	47%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico El Vigia (rating 1479 vs 1392).
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico El Vigia	Real Frontera
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.3	0.5 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	1.5 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.40

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.90▼	Pinn 1.97 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:19 +74’	1.91	3.40	3.40
16:31 +10’	1.90▼	3.40	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:41	1.97	3.23	3.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico El Vigia 3–0–3 Real Frontera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Real Frontera	1-3 HT 0-1	Atletico El Vigia
03/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	0-1 HT 0-0	Real Frontera
07/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Real Frontera	3-1 HT 1-1	Atletico El Vigia
05/10/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	1-2 HT 0-0	Real Frontera
23/08/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Real Frontera	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico El Vigia
02/07/25 Venezuela Cup	Real Frontera	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico El Vigia

Standings · Venezuela Cup · Copa Venezuela 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Zamora	1	1	0	6	1	3
2	Atletico Barinas	1	1	0	1	0	3
3	Real Frontera	1	0	1	0	1	0
4	Atletico El Vigia	1	0	1	1	6	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico El Vigia	Real Frontera
Zamora II	2-0 W	0-2 L
Academia Puerto Cabello II	0-0 D	1-2 L
CD Lara	2-1 W	0-2 L
Yaracuyanos	0-0 D	0-2 L
Atletico Barinas	1-7 L	1-3 L
Urena SC	1-2 L	1-5 L
Barquisimeto	0-5 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico El Vigia (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Atletico El Vigia

DLLLLDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
09/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
02/08	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-1	7	8	W
29/07	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
25/07	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
24/06	Zamora Venezuela Cup	1-4	1-6	5	5	L
31/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-7	3	2	L
24/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
20/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-5	2	6	L
16/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	6	2	D

Real Frontera

LLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	0-2	4	7	L
08/08	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
02/08	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-3	2	8	L
29/07	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-3	5	4	L
25/07	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-3	1-5	7	6	L
24/06	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Cup	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
06/06	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-2	6	7	L
30/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-2	1	1	L
24/05	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
16/05	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-2	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico El Vigia vs Real Frontera?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico El Vigia win (47%). Probabilities: Atletico El Vigia 47%, draw 27%, Real Frontera 26%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico El Vigia vs Real Frontera?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Atletico El Vigia 1.65 · Real Frontera 1.18), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico El Vigia vs Real Frontera?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.