Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 13/09, 16:00

Prediction: UCAM Murcia CF B vs Deportivo Maritimo

Team pages: UCAM Murcia CF B · Deportivo Maritimo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

UCAM Murcia CF B1.59

Deportivo Maritimo1.16

1X2

46% 28% 26%

UCAM Murcia CF B Draw Deportivo Maritimo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

UCAM Murcia CF B 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

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Deportivo Maritimo 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

UCAM Murcia CF B 2–2–0 Deportivo Maritimo (4 last)

UCAM Murcia CF B1-1Deportivo Maritimo
Deportivo Maritimo1-2UCAM Murcia CF B
UCAM Murcia CF B1-1Deportivo Maritimo
Deportivo Maritimo1-3UCAM Murcia CF B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UCAM Murcia CF B 1554 · Deportivo Maritimo 1469

	UCAM Murcia CF B	Draw	Deportivo Maritimo
Our model	46%	27%	27%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UCAM Murcia CF B (rating 1554 vs 1469).
H2H favours UCAM Murcia CF B: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UCAM Murcia CF B	Deportivo Maritimo
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.4	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/44/11%	13/63/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.4	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.6	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.34
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 4.30 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:57 +16’	1.95	3.20	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +181’	1.75	3.34	4.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UCAM Murcia CF B 2–2–0 Deportivo Maritimo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	UCAM Murcia CF B	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Maritimo
07/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Deportivo Maritimo	1-2 HT 0-1	UCAM Murcia CF B
11/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	UCAM Murcia CF B	1-1	Deportivo Maritimo
12/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Deportivo Maritimo	1-3 HT 1-2	UCAM Murcia CF B

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Molinense CF	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
2	At. Pulpileno	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	AD Mar Menor San Javier	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
4	Santomera	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
4	Cotillas CD	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	SFC Minerva	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
7	Bala Azul	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
7	Olimpico Totana	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Aguilas B	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Alcantarilla FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Bullas Deportivo	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	UD Los Garres	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
13	Atletico Santa Cruz	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
14	Mazarron	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	UCAM Murcia CF B	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
16	Deportivo Maritimo	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	FC Cartagena B	1	0	0	1	2	4	0
18	CD Algar	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UCAM Murcia CF B	Deportivo Maritimo
Aguilas B	2-2 D	1-2 L
Muleno	1-1 D	1-0 W
Mazarron	3-3 D	0-0 D
El Palmar CF Estrella Grana	4-0 W	0-1 L
Union Molinense CF	3-3 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: UCAM Murcia CF B (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UCAM Murcia CF B

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	1-2	7	5	L
10/05	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	2-2	5	5	D
03/05	Muleno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
26/04	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	3-3	2	4	D
19/04	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	4-0	7	2	W
11/04	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
02/04	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	3-3	7	7	D
29/03	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	4-0	2	6	W
22/03	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	2-2	4-2	5	8	W
15/03	UD Caravaca Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-0	–	–	W

Deportivo Maritimo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
10/05	Yeclano B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	3-1	4	2	W
03/05	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	–	4-0	–	–	W
26/04	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	6	9	L
19/04	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
11/04	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
05/04	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
29/03	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-1	8	8	L
22/03	Muleno Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/03	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	1-1	4	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UCAM Murcia CF B vs Deportivo Maritimo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UCAM Murcia CF B win (46%). Probabilities: UCAM Murcia CF B 46%, draw 28%, Deportivo Maritimo 26%.

How many goals are expected in UCAM Murcia CF B vs Deportivo Maritimo?

The model expects 2.74 goals (UCAM Murcia CF B 1.59 · Deportivo Maritimo 1.16), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in UCAM Murcia CF B vs Deportivo Maritimo?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.