Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 20/09, 17:30

Prediction: Aguilas B vs Bala Azul

Team pages: Bala Azul

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Aguilas B1.49

Bala Azul1.3

1X2

40% 28% 32%

Aguilas B Draw Bala Azul

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Aguilas B 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWDDD

Bala Azul 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWDLLLDW

Head-to-head

Aguilas B 3–1–0 Bala Azul (4 last)

Bala Azul0-0Aguilas B
Aguilas B2-0Bala Azul
Aguilas B2-1Bala Azul
Bala Azul0-2Aguilas B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aguilas B 1569 · Bala Azul 1492

	Aguilas B	Draw	Bala Azul
Our model	41%	28%	32%
Market	40%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aguilas B (rating 1569 vs 1492).
H2H favours Aguilas B: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aguilas B	Bala Azul
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/57/14%	29/57/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	6.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.29 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:21 +3’	2.25	3.20	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:04 +139’	2.08	3.12	3.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguilas B 3–1–0 Bala Azul

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Bala Azul	0-0	Aguilas B
26/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Aguilas B	2-0	Bala Azul
10/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Aguilas B	2-1 HT 2-1	Bala Azul
12/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Bala Azul	0-2 HT 0-1	Aguilas B

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Molinense CF	2	1	1	0	6	4	4
2	San Javier CF	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
3	Bullas Deportivo	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
4	At. Pulpileno	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
5	Santomera	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
5	Cotillas CD	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
7	Bala Azul	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	SFC Minerva	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
9	UCAM Murcia CF B	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
10	Atletico Santa Cruz	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
11	Aguilas B	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
12	Alcantarilla FC	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
13	UD Los Garres	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
14	Olimpico Totana	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
15	FC Cartagena B	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
16	Mazarron	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
17	CD Algar	2	0	0	2	0	5	0
17	Deportivo Maritimo	2	0	0	2	0	5	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aguilas B	Bala Azul
Mazarron	3-2 W	1-0 W
UD Caravaca	1-0 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Aguilas B (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aguilas B

WWLWWWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	2-2	6	6	D
06/09	Alcantarilla FC Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
10/05	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	2-2	5	5	D
03/05	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	3-2	1	10	W
25/04	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	2-1	11	4	W
19/04	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
11/04	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-1	–	–	W
01/04	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
28/03	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-0	–	–	W
22/03	UD Caravaca Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-0	–	–	W

Bala Azul

DWWWDLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-0	3	11	W
06/09	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
09/05	UD Caravaca Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-4	–	–	L
02/05	Cieza Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	1-3	5	6	L
26/04	Muleno Spain Tercera Group 13	–	3-4	–	–	L
19/04	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	3	11	D
12/04	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	–	3-2	–	–	W
05/04	Real Murcia B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-0	5	8	W
28/03	Yeclano B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
22/03	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	6	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aguilas B vs Bala Azul?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aguilas B win (40%). Probabilities: Aguilas B 40%, draw 28%, Bala Azul 32%.

How many goals are expected in Aguilas B vs Bala Azul?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Aguilas B 1.49 · Bala Azul 1.3), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aguilas B vs Bala Azul?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.