Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 20/09, 19:00

Prediction: Olimpico Totana vs Union Molinense CF

Team pages: Olimpico Totana · Union Molinense CF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Olimpico Totana1.35

Union Molinense CF1.25

1X2

38% 29% 33%

Olimpico Totana Draw Union Molinense CF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Olimpico Totana 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WLDDDWWDDL

Union Molinense CF 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWWDWD

Head-to-head

Olimpico Totana 2–1–1 Union Molinense CF (4 last)

Union Molinense CF0-2Olimpico Totana
Olimpico Totana0-0Union Molinense CF
Olimpico Totana1-2Union Molinense CF
Union Molinense CF1-2Olimpico Totana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olimpico Totana 1497 · Union Molinense CF 1506

	Olimpico Totana	Draw	Union Molinense CF
Our model	38%	29%	33%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Olimpico Totana: 2-1-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olimpico Totana	Union Molinense CF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/38/50%	22/44/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.5	6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.50 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.81

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:36 +12’	2.38	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:11 +146’	2.50	2.87	2.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpico Totana 2–1–1 Union Molinense CF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	Union Molinense CF	0-2 HT 0-0	Olimpico Totana
17/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Olimpico Totana	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Molinense CF
25/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Olimpico Totana	1-2 HT 1-1	Union Molinense CF
14/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Union Molinense CF	1-2	Olimpico Totana

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Molinense CF	2	1	1	0	6	4	4
2	San Javier CF	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
3	Bullas Deportivo	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
4	At. Pulpileno	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
5	Santomera	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
5	Cotillas CD	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
7	Bala Azul	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	SFC Minerva	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
9	UCAM Murcia CF B	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
10	Atletico Santa Cruz	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
11	Aguilas B	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
12	Alcantarilla FC	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
13	UD Los Garres	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
14	Olimpico Totana	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
15	FC Cartagena B	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
16	Mazarron	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
17	CD Algar	2	0	0	2	0	5	0
17	Deportivo Maritimo	2	0	0	2	0	5	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olimpico Totana	Union Molinense CF
FC Cartagena B	0-2 L	4-2 W
Real Murcia B	4-2 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Union Molinense CF (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Olimpico Totana

WLDDDWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
06/09	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	2-2	8	7	D
17/05	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
10/05	Santomera Spain Tercera Group 13	2-1	3-1	8	4	W
03/05	UD Caravaca Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/04	Cieza Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	2-2	5	3	D
19/04	Bala Azul Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	4	11	D
12/04	Muleno Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-1	–	–	D
01/04	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-2	0-2	11	7	L
28/03	Real Murcia B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	4-2	4	7	W

Union Molinense CF

LDLDLWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	San Javier CF Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-2	10	9	D
06/09	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	4-2	4	6	W
17/05	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
10/05	Real Murcia B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
03/05	Yeclano B Spain Tercera Group 13	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
26/04	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
19/04	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
11/04	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-2	–	–	L
02/04	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-2	3-3	2	7	D
29/03	Mazarron Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-1	5	11	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olimpico Totana vs Union Molinense CF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Olimpico Totana win (38%). Probabilities: Olimpico Totana 38%, draw 29%, Union Molinense CF 33%.

How many goals are expected in Olimpico Totana vs Union Molinense CF?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Olimpico Totana 1.35 · Union Molinense CF 1.25), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Olimpico Totana vs Union Molinense CF?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.