Football · Spain Tercera Group 13 · 12/09, 20:00

Prediction: Bala Azul vs Mazarron

Team pages: Bala Azul

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Bala Azul1.3

Mazarron1.42

1X2

33% 29% 38%

Bala Azul Draw Mazarron

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Bala Azul 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWWDLLLD

Mazarron 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWDDLWDL

Head-to-head

Bala Azul 0–3–1 Mazarron (4 last)

Bala Azul1-1Mazarron
Mazarron1-1Bala Azul
Mazarron3-1Bala Azul
Bala Azul1-1Mazarron

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bala Azul 1495 · Mazarron 1465

	Bala Azul	Draw	Mazarron
Our model	33%	28%	39%
Market	33%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 13.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bala Azul	Mazarron
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/57/14%	29/57/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	1.5 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.6 / 0.4	7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.10

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.75▼	Pinn 2.81
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.30 → 2.35▲	Pinn 2.57 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:53 +20’	2.80	3.10	2.30
02:52 +6’	2.75▼	3.10	2.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:26 +332’	2.79	2.77	2.60
09:56 +112’	2.81▲	2.78▲	2.57▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bala Azul 0–3–1 Mazarron

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 13	Bala Azul	1-1	Mazarron
12/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 13	Mazarron	1-1 HT 0-0	Bala Azul
03/04/22 Spain Tercera Group 13	Mazarron	3-1	Bala Azul
21/11/21 Spain Tercera Group 13	Bala Azul	1-1	Mazarron

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 13

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Molinense CF	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
2	At. Pulpileno	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	AD Mar Menor San Javier	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
4	Santomera	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
4	Cotillas CD	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	SFC Minerva	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
7	Bala Azul	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
7	Olimpico Totana	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Aguilas B	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Alcantarilla FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Bullas Deportivo	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	UD Los Garres	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
13	Atletico Santa Cruz	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
14	Mazarron	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	UCAM Murcia CF B	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
16	Deportivo Maritimo	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	FC Cartagena B	1	0	0	1	2	4	0
18	CD Algar	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bala Azul	Mazarron
Muleno	3-4 L	1-1 D
Real Murcia B	2-0 W	1-1 D
At. Pulpileno	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Mazarron (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bala Azul

DDWWWDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
09/05	UD Caravaca Spain Tercera Group 13	–	2-4	–	–	L
02/05	Cieza Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	1-3	5	6	L
26/04	Muleno Spain Tercera Group 13	–	3-4	–	–	L
19/04	Olimpico Totana Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	3	11	D
12/04	FC Cartagena B Spain Tercera Group 13	–	3-2	–	–	W
05/04	Real Murcia B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	2-0	5	8	W
28/03	Yeclano B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
22/03	SFC Minerva Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
15/03	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-1	2	10	D

Mazarron

DWDWDDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Cotillas CD Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-2	–	–	L
16/05	Real Murcia B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
10/05	At. Pulpileno Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-0	4	9	W
03/05	Aguilas B Spain Tercera Group 13	0-1	2-3	8	10	L
26/04	UCAM Murcia CF B Spain Tercera Group 13	1-1	3-3	5	4	D
19/04	Muleno Spain Tercera Group 13	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/04	El Palmar CF Estrella Grana Spain Tercera Group 13	–	4-1	–	–	W
05/04	Deportivo Maritimo Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
29/03	Union Molinense CF Spain Tercera Group 13	0-0	1-0	5	11	W
21/03	Atletico Santa Cruz Spain Tercera Group 13	1-0	1-1	0	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bala Azul vs Mazarron?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mazarron win (38%). Probabilities: Bala Azul 33%, draw 29%, Mazarron 38%.

How many goals are expected in Bala Azul vs Mazarron?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Bala Azul 1.3 · Mazarron 1.42), with a 60% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Bala Azul vs Mazarron?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.